Winter Meetings end; Rule 5 shows usual results

The Winter Meetings ended yesterday, and here’s what the Phillies have to show for it:

LHP – Travis Blackley
RHP – Lincoln Holdzkom

The two “who’s that?” pickups were taken in fhe Major League round of the Rule 5 Draft, baseball’s annual pickup game of “we’re gonna take your team’s crummy close-to-being-prospect guys.”

The Rule 5 has been around for a long time; in fact, Christy Mathewson was a Rule 5 pickup. Amazing, huh? The game doesn’t have instant replay, yet we’ve had this hodgepodge Minor League castaway draft for 100 years.

Anyway, Blackley is your run-of-the-mill last chance pitcher. He’s a Seattle farmhand (of course) who last pitched with the Giants. He spent much of 2007 with AAA Fresno, recovering from shoulder surgery:

2007 – 162.1 IP, 10-8, 4.66 ERA, 121 K, 68 BB

In San Francisco, he struggled during two starts, but not as badly as the time he spent in Seattle in 2004. There, as a 21-year-old, he managed to post a 10+ ERA and a WHIP over 2. That’s hard to do. He managed to do it.

Holdzkom, meanwhile, had Tommy John in 2003, but since, has been relatively strong in the Boston farm system. In 2007, the 26-year-old pitched fine for AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket:

2007 – 63.2 IP, 5-1, 2.96 ERA, 54 K, 44 BB

Both players would need to be on the Phillies 25-man roster for the entire season to remain Phils. So what are the chances? Probably slim; however, it’s possible we could see one of these guys on the Big League roster all year.

Looking at the rotation, this is the current setup:

SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Kyle Kendrick
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Brad Lidge
RP – Tom Gordon
RP – JC Romero
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Shane Youmans

There’s probably two more spots up for grabs, and even Youmans isn’t penciled in yet. I’d think Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson have the inside track, but I could see Holdzkom get a good shot at the ‘pen, considering the guy can pitch. Meanwhile, Eaton’s potential injury could spell him more time than originally planned, giving Blackley a chance to make the roster. He’s been said to get a tryout for the fifth spot in the rotation — he’ll be up against a healthy Eaton, JA Happ and JD Durbin, unless no one else is acquired.

Still, I couldn’t see these two making it all year. Money for nothing.

***

Of course, “money for nothing” has been the mantra of Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro and the brass upstairs. They don’t want to just throw around dollars to free agents and trading chips. So they’ll take fliers on question marks, has-beens and unproven youth. Now, just to put it out there, these guys do cost money too.

Bottom line is no matter what, winning costs money. Whether you’re signing Andruw Jones to an absurd $18M/year deal, or picking up ex-Pirates, you’re spending. Having one breakout player that could change your team’s position is the same as having six guys who might slightly change your team’s position.

It’s amazing to me how the Yankees and Red Sox, despite all their spending and trading, somehow have the best chips required to grab Johan Santana. How did they get Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury and Melky Cabrera? How did this happen?

I’ll tell you how — scouting, drafting, coaching.

The Phillies don’t have a great base of prospects. Carlos Carrasco figures to be a solid No. 3 starter; Adrian Cardenas could be an above-average second baseman; Josh Outman has No. 4 starter potential; Kyle Drabek and Joe Savery have huge upsides, but the risks are real. Everything else is a crapshoot — from Golson on down to Carpenter.

The stark truth is the Phillies won’t have Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell and Kyle Kendrick much longer. These guys are all (excusing Victorino, a Rule 5 guy) draftees, all Phils prospects, all guys made into stars (or close) through the system.

So figure those last two paragraphs — we don’t have the talent in the low levels; we have the talent in the highest level. Repeat that: We don’t have the talent in the low levels; we have the talent in the highest level.

In 2006, the Phils won 85 games. In 2005, they won 88. In 2004 and 2003, 86. In 2001, 86. This team is close. Damn close. And last year they broke the bubble. This year — this year — is the year they’re supposed to break the next bubble. They’re at least — at least — supposed to win the National League. And we’re playing cautious?

We’re worrying about the future?

Newsflash: This team won’t be the same next year. It won’t be the same in 2010. Judging by what’s down in the system, it may very well be worse. So the time is now.

The Winter Meetings showed the Phils lack the cajones to piece together a champion. Instead of going all in for Kosuke Fukudome; instead of putting together a package for one of the higher-tier pitchers (maybe Bedard could’ve been had?); instead of offering Hiroki Kuroda, they did nothing. Now they’re looking to maybe get Kris Benson. Maybe Nate McLouth is part of their plans.

Yes, the market isn’t great this year, but this team won’t be great for much longer. The chemistry is tremendous; the talent is tremendous. It’ll take years to rebuild the farm system no matter what’s the case. It’s still not a good farm system, and it wasn’t four years ago.

I’m worried the Phils are letting the boat drift off without ever giving it enough reinforcements. They could’ve grabbed David Riske for cheaper than JC Romero; instead, he’s a Brewer, and the Phils have Shane Youmans in the bullpen.

Maybe Youmans becomes a stud in 2008. Maybe these Rule 5 guys are lights out. Maybe. But to often the Phillies rely on “maybe,” and too often we get the same results:

89
85
88
86
86

Jimmy Rollins is saying 100 wins for the Phillies in 2008.

100?

Maybe he’s counting Spring Training.

Expect to see Watson in Philly; news and notes

First, news:

- The Padres signed Randy Wolf over the weekend. No problem with that. Wolf obviously wanted to stay on the West Coast, and the Pads provided him with a good home. He should perform well at PETCO, if healthy. If. Would he have benefited the Phils? Maybe. But that’s a gamble you take with every starter — no matter if you know him or not. That’s why I continue to ride the Bartolo Colon train.

- Recent rumors have the Phils tied to Geoff Jenkins, but in an outside role. I documented earlier why he doesn’t fit. Give me Luis Gonzalez instead. I’d still much rather have Shannon Stewart.

- Aaron Rowand is still unsigned, and the Phils offered him arbitration. That’s good. The Phils would win the first round draft pick and supplemental round pick from the team that bags him, unless the team is one of baseball’s worst 15 in 2007. The Dodgers are supposedly the front-runner, which means we’ll get the sandwich pick and a supplemental (the Dodgers, ironically enough, were No. 15). But that’s still very good. But Rowand may stay on the market for a while, as he still wants five years. The Phils won’t give it to him. If he caves and the Phils can grab him for 4Y/$45M or something like that, I’m all in.

- Melvin Mora is not ever, ever, ever coming to Philadelphia. Ever. Whatever.

During the boring Thanksgiving holiday, the Phillies made some very minor moves, picking up seven — count ‘em, seven — Minor League players on league minimum deals.

The heavy seven:
- Michael Restovich: Slugging three-true-outcomes outfielder, 29.
- Brandon Watson: Speedy, slick-hitting outfielder, 26.
- Matt Childers: Career Minor Leaguer with liquor-loving tongue, 29.
- Kris Wilson: Pitcher had some coffee breaks with Yanks, Royals, 30.
- Casey Smith: Versatile infielder who can hit a little, 29.
- Andy Tracy: In my baseball card collection; hits a bit, 33.
- Ron Chiavacci: Veteran Minor Leaguer with flame-throwing arm, 30.

Of the seven, Watson has the best chance of finding Philadelphia, and really has the ability to match what Michael Bourn gave us this year. Here’s a sample, from his stint with the Nationals.

It’s nice to see the Phils stockpiling the upper half of the Lehigh Valley roster, especially with guys in the “prime years” of their careers. Last year’s AAA team was atrocious; this year’s team has the potential already (with Mathieson, Happ, Jaramillo) to be a force in the International League.

What’s also nice is it gives the Phillies more options than Joe Thurston or Eude Brito or even Chris Roberson. One of these seven is likely to pan out into something productive. And who knows, we may have another Chris Coste on our hands with Restovich or Tracy. Having a pile like this to choose from is always a good thing.

Phillies prospect options very good, very bad

Baseball America published its list of the Phillies top-10 prospects for their 2008 publication. Here’s the list:

 

1. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
2. Adrian Cardenas (2B)
3. Joshua Outman (LHP)
4. Joe Savery (LHP)
5. Kyle Drabek (RHP)
6. Dominic Brown (OF)
7. Greg Golson (OF)
8. Lou Marson (C)
9. Drew Carpenter (RHP)
10. Jason Jaramillo (C)

 

What’s it mean? Well, it’s a good starting point to find out what Minor League Phillies have a shot at the big show. But it doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

The readers at Phuture Phillies, the most trusted blog that covers the Phils farm system, recently ranked the Phils top-30. Here’s their top-10:

 

1. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
2. Adrian Cardenas (2B)
3. Joe Savery (LHP)
4. Joshua Outman (LHP)
5. Drew Carpenter (RHP)
6. Lou Marson (C)
7. Jason Donald (SS)
8. Kyle Drabek (RHP)
9. JA Happ (LHP)
10. Brad Harman (SS/2B)

 

You start to get an idea through these lists and other lists out there that in the Phillies farm system, there are a select few who seem to be can’t-miss prospects (Carrasco, Cardenas, Savery, Outman), then the rest: a few guys we’re pinning our hopes on (Brown, Carpenter, Drabek, Donald, Harman, Marson) and a few guys getting close to “Majors or Bust” level (Happ, Golson, Jaramillo). And the entire system is filled with either the former or the latter.

 

To put it bluntly, a lot of the high-A guys are exciting and have potential here and there; most of Ottawa’s 2007 roster is never-was material.

 

In 2008, a good chunk of the AAA (now Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs) roster features players who must make a big impression, so we’ll focus on these guys, as they’re the ones who might get to see Philadelphia this coming year. Let’s first run down the big four prospects, then the guys looking for a jump to Philadelphia in 2008.

Carlos Carrasco is the clear class of the Phils farm system. The 20-year-old Venezuelan started 2006 in the Sally League (Lakewood) and dominated, going 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA. He started 2007 in the Florida State League (Clearwater) and dominated, going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA. He struggled a bit after a promotion to the Eastern League (Reading), but given his patterns, it’s not hard to think he’ll blow away the International League (Lehigh Valley). He has a tight fastball/changeup combination; from the right side, he’s the perfect foil to the other fastball/changeup hurler we got in Philly.

 

2008: Carrasco will spend considerable time in Allentown; I wouldn’t even mind him staying there all season, working against more patient and experienced hitters before coming to Philadelphia. He may get a shot Sept. 1, but that’s the earliest I’d like to see him pitching at the Vault.

 

2009: Hopefully, he’s starting the fourth game of the season for your Phillies.

 

Adrian Cardenas is a fine infielder — a sharp hitter with the ability to become a steady singles/doubles hitter. Even has a bout of power in his bat, hitting 9 homers in Lakewood. The problem? Not a sharp defensive player. He doesn’t have the range to play third base, so is really limited to shortstop, and more, to second base. The problem, of course, is what’s blocking him to the Major Leagues. The 20-year-older should start 2008 in Clearwater, but it’ll be interesting to see if he — or someone else — is dealt before the move to the Majors.

 

2008: Like I just said, he’ll start the year in Clearwater, and if he performs well enough, he might move to Reading before he turns 21.

 

2009: I can’t see him being in the Majors until September 2009, and by then, the landscape could look much different. I say, if the Phils can swing him for a big trade at this year’s deadline, it may be a juicy option.

 

Joe Savery was the Phils’ first pick in the 2007 First Year Player Draft. He was a gamble, coming off labrum surgery during his time at Rice University. But he’s been no wart, going 2-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 7.52 K/9. The lefty brings a solid fastball and strong changeup to the table (sense a trend?), but also displays a working curve. He’s also a two-way talent, the best hitter at Rice during his tenure. Still, he’s a hurler, through and through. And if healthy, a damn good one.

 

2008: Savery will either start in Clearwater or Reading, and his great showing in the Arizona Fall League may indicate he’ll be shacking up at the latter location.

 

2009: Like another talented Phillie lefty, he could see a call up by May or June. After a breaking-in season, he could be called upon to be the club’s No. 3.

Joshua Outman snuck up on most Phillie phanatics, garnering much attention because of his inspired play at Clearwater (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 8.97 K/9). It’s been an adjustment period at Reading, and depending on his Spring Training performance, he’ll either spend a little more time there or head south to Allentown. He’s a slender lefty with a low-90s fastball, a curve, a slider and, yup, a changeup. It’s our wheelhouse.

 

2008: Outman will either start the year in Reading or Allentown, but by the end of the year, he’ll likely be in Allentown. He’ll be on the short list for a September call-up to Philadelphia.

 

2009: It’s possible Outman will start the year in Philly; it’s possible Outman will be taking a few more starts in Allentown; it’s possible he won’t be in the organization.

 

After the big four, it’s a crap shoot. Carpenter has potential, but his success is one big year in Clearwater. And after him, it gets muddled enough.

 

Greg Golson is a huge question mark — some say he has huge potential, others say he’s a career Minor Leaguer. In 2007, between Clearwater and Reading, he hit 15 home runs, drove in 68 and slugged about .410. Not bad. But he was a first round pick, and really hasn’t played quite like one. He has raw speed and hitting prowess, but hasn’t quite put it together, especially with empty plate discipline (173 strikeouts in 571 at bats this year). That’s bad.

 

2008: Because he’s a right fielder by trade, it’s quite possible he gets a shot in Philadelphia sooner than later. Is he the right fielder of the future? Cut down the strikeouts and put a game together, and hell yeah. What are those chances? I’ll give him 7-to-1 odds on being the right fielder of the future. But if one of the outfielders goes down early in the season (which could easily happen), Golson could drink his coffee.

 

JA Happ took his coffee in 2007, and took it with a lot of cream. That’s a metaphor for a mediocre start (4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K). The 6’5” lefty was outstanding until he hit AAA, then he hit the wall (though his K rates were still high). The Phils brought him up for a spot start and he pretty much bombed, sending him back to Ottawa where he finished, before coming down with injuries that maybe reasoned his poor 2007.

 

2008: He is a question mark for sure, but there’s hope a healthy Happ will perform at high levels. (Dig the alliteration!) Spring Training will prove whether he’ll be starting in AAA or the MLB, but one figures he’ll make a few AAA starts before venturing east. If he performs well, he’ll be a Phillie by June. Will he start? Depends on how the rotation looks then; if it’s still a healthy five-man, Happ may be called upon to make spot starts or even pitch out of the ‘pen.

 

Jason Jaramillo is one of the bazillion “catchers of the future” the Phils tout in their system each year. The 25-year-old catcher spent 2007 in AAA Ottawa and put up solid, if unspectacular numbers. He’s either nothing to write home about or the next Johnny Estrada. I think he might be something in the middle — a poor-man’s Yorvit Torrealba (Jaramillo has good defense and arm). That’s not a big complement.

 

2008: Carlos Ruiz had a fine rookie 2007, and if he continues on a strong pace, no Jaramillos will be discussed as “catcher of the future.” The Phils could swing him now for another Minor Leaguer, or package him with another prospect for a more rewarding player, but to do that is to put all faith in Ruiz, and that can’t be done just yet. Close, but not yet.

 

Other Iron Pigs waiting in the wings:
- Javon Moran: A poor-man’s Greg Golson. So, it’s pretty likely he won’t be the first to be called up in an OF emergency.
- Brennan King: He’s an older guy (27), and doesn’t have Major League talent.
- Joe Bisenius: Saw time in Philly last year, and could be a future closer. May see time in Philly late this year.

 

So are any Phuture Phillies (trademark Phuture Phillies) ready to make the jump in 2008? Hard to answer, especially because nobody figured Kyle Kendrick would jump from Reading to a 10-4, 3.87 ERA season in the big leagues.

 

But Happ could very well be that next Kendrick — more accurately, Outman could be the next Kendrick, jumping from possibly AA to MLB. The only position player prospect that has a real chance at making a difference is Golson, and even he’s an outside shot. Pitching is at a premium, and luckily, the Phils have a couple outstanding arms in the system. It’s best the Phils don’t rush them. Keep Carrasco in the minors for another year; don’t even think about moving Savery too far. The Phillies youth movement looks like it’s going to blossom in 2010. Until then, let the chips fall where they may, and go with the veterans before making any crass moves.

 

But, just to get you excited, here’s your potential pitching rotation for the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies:
1. Cole Hamels (LHP)
2. Brett Myers (RHP)
3. Joe Savery (LHP)
4. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
5. Kyle Kendrick (RHP)

 

Yeah.