Jenkins to decide between Phils, Pads

The Phillies are reportedly finalists for left-handed outfield slugger Geoff Jenkins.

The Brewer would command about $5M or so over a year, probably no more — well, hopefully no more. He’s a decent slugger, but he’s close to a TTT guy:

2007: 21 HR / 107 H / 116 SO

Here’s what I said about him in November:

Geoff Jenkins
Gives you: Left-handed power bat
Role: Starting right fielder, taking spells against lefties
Jenkins has been discussed as a replacement for Rowand’s outfield spot, but I don’t know why. The Phils would be better off with a starting right-handed bat, and with Burrell in left, there’s no real need for spotty defense on either side of Victorino. Plus, Jenkins can command close to the $7M+ he made with the Brewers.

I stand by all this, and would much rather see a starting right fielder than a Werth/Jenkins platoon. Jenkins had a 2007 SSR of 3.03716. That’s a shade above Werth’s 2.95136. If you’re losing a guy whose SSR was a 3.96728, you’d better make up for it.

Yes, I do think the Phils need more than Chris Snelling in right field, and Jenkins is more. But another TTT-type player on this club? Where does he hit? Sixth behind Burrell? You mean to tell me a Howard/Burrell/Jenkins combo isn’t going to do add to the air conditioning system at Citizens Bank Park?

If getting sufficient substitution for Rowand is a 10, Jenkins would be a 6. Good enough? Maybe. But for years of maybe, is this the right way to go?

Mitchell Report: E-mail says Pujols, Nomar; Nunez listed

UPDATE: This is not the real list. See above for the list taken from the actual report.

An e-mail circulating the Web has leaked the names that will be revealed today in the Mitchell Report, which was conducted to find MLB players who have taken performance-enhancing drugs. The real list will be released at 2 p.m., so there’s a good chance this list is genuinely fake or speculatory. So take it with a grain of salt. But I’ll post it regardless:

Brady Anderson, Manny Alexander, Rick Ankiel, Jeff Bagwell, Barry Bonds, Aaron Boone, Rafaeil Bettancourt, Bret Boone, Milton Bradley, David Bell, Dante Bichette, Albert Belle, Paul Byrd, Wil Cordero, Ken Caminiti, Mike Cameron, Ramon Castro, Jose and Ozzie Canseco, Roger Clemens, Paxton Crawford, Wilson Delgado, Lenn y Dykstra, Johnny Damon, Carl Everett, Kyle Farnsworth, Ryan Fr anklin, Troy Glaus, Rich Garces, Jason Grimsley, Troy Glaus, Juan Gonzalez (Juan A.?), Eric Gagne, Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Giambi, Jeremy Giambi, Jose Guillen, Jay Gibbons, Juan Gonzalez, Clay Hensley, Jerry Hairston, Felix Heredia, Jr., Darren Holmes, Wally Joyner, Darryl Kile, Matt Lawton, Raul Mondesi, Ma rk McGwire, Guillermo Mota, Robert Machado, Damian Moss, Abraham Nunez, Trot Nixon, Jose Offerman, Andy Pettitte, Mark Prior, Neifi Perez, Rafael Palmiero, Albert Pujols, Brian Roberts, Juan Rincon, John Rocker, Pudge Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Scott Schoenweiis, David Segui, Alex Sanchez , Gary Sheffield, Miguel Tejada, Julian Tavarez, Fernando Tatis, Maurice Vaughn, Jason Varitek, Ismael Valdez, Matt Williams and Kerry Wood.

Among the big names in that list:
- Albert Pujols
- Roger Clemens
- Barry Bonds
- Jeff Bagwell
- Nomar Garciaparra
- Jason Varitek
- Sammy Sosa
- Mark McGwire

Some we figured, but Pujols? Wow.

Among Phillies of the past (no current ones named):
- Abraham Nunez
- Lenny Dykstra
- Ryan Franklin
- Paul Byrd
- David Bell

Nunez? Wow. Would’ve never thought.

It seems pretty legitimate, but again, I stress that we can’t say anything official until the real list comes out at 2 p.m. Let’s not burn these guys at the stake yet.

Bye-bye Rowand, Wade goes nuts

Crazy day.

- Aaron Rowand is a San Francisco Giant. The former Phillies centerfielder signed for 5Y/$60M. Too much? Yes. Necessary? For the Giants, it’s hard to say. They don’t have the offense necessary to be a contender, but in the National League West, with that pitching, nothing isn’t possible.

- For the Phillies, however, it’s an alert. Put it to rest: Rowand is too much at that price and length. 2007 was a career season; he matched that somewhat in 2005; every other year came with injury or mediocre play. He’s a gamer, yes; he’s a chemistry guy, yes; but those things don’t equal a five-year deal.

Still, the Phillies need to make some moves. It’s necessary. If they have just $10M to spend, grab a reliever, grab a low-cost starter, grab an outfielder who could play everyday in right field. Or trade some farmhands for a mid-level starter. Whatever the case, do it. Erik Bedard may not be an option — considering Baltimore claims the Phils don’t have the chips — but here’s a name I’ll throw out: Ian Snell. The righthander has an ERA below 4 and could provide a perfect No. 3 in the rotation. Of course, Baseball-Reference compares him to … this guy.

Whatever the case, the Phils need to spend. They don’t need to spend like the Cubs, or even like the Giants. But to win the East, they need to show some force. Be aggressive.

- Also today, Ed Wade continued his demolition of the Astros farm system by acquiring Miguel Tejada for five players, including former Phillie prospect Mike Costanzo. Too much? Yes. Necessary? Yes.

What? Necessary? Let me explain:

The Astros are in the NL Central.

That’s it. With Tejada on board, the Astros feature a nice lineup. Their order goes from Bourn to Pence to Berkman to Lee to Tejada. Now, I don’t think Tejada is the same player he was five years ago (which is why I think Wade gave up far too much, not to mention Tejada can ask for a trade at the end of 2008), but as the tertiary compliment on a team, he becomes valuable. And for one year, the ’stros can bash the heck out of the Central, using mediocre pitching and powerful hitting to win their division.

Sound familiar?

Phillies reject Helms to Florida

Wes Helms isn’t going to Miami yet.

The Phillies reportedly rejected Florida’s offer of Scott Nestor for the overrated third baseman.

Helms was paltry in 2007 — well, paltry is maybe too generous. Still, the Phils could’ve received a mid-quality prospect capable of making relief appearances. I can understand that the Phils probably would’ve wanted the Fish to eat some of Helms’ salary, but Helms is making about a third of the entire Marlins payroll this year. Seriously. To get Helms, the Fish may need to dangle a bit more.

As it stands, the Phillies are scoring a solid C on the offseason scorecard. The Brad Lidge deal brings a fresh arm to the city, while JC Romero’s re-signing is solid enough to warrant justification. But they’ve done nothing to really shore up all their holes. Call it a wash. Getting Nestor for Helms probably would’ve brought it up to a C+. And still, C or C+ isn’t good enough for a World Series contender.

Winter Meetings end; Rule 5 shows usual results

The Winter Meetings ended yesterday, and here’s what the Phillies have to show for it:

LHP – Travis Blackley
RHP – Lincoln Holdzkom

The two “who’s that?” pickups were taken in fhe Major League round of the Rule 5 Draft, baseball’s annual pickup game of “we’re gonna take your team’s crummy close-to-being-prospect guys.”

The Rule 5 has been around for a long time; in fact, Christy Mathewson was a Rule 5 pickup. Amazing, huh? The game doesn’t have instant replay, yet we’ve had this hodgepodge Minor League castaway draft for 100 years.

Anyway, Blackley is your run-of-the-mill last chance pitcher. He’s a Seattle farmhand (of course) who last pitched with the Giants. He spent much of 2007 with AAA Fresno, recovering from shoulder surgery:

2007 – 162.1 IP, 10-8, 4.66 ERA, 121 K, 68 BB

In San Francisco, he struggled during two starts, but not as badly as the time he spent in Seattle in 2004. There, as a 21-year-old, he managed to post a 10+ ERA and a WHIP over 2. That’s hard to do. He managed to do it.

Holdzkom, meanwhile, had Tommy John in 2003, but since, has been relatively strong in the Boston farm system. In 2007, the 26-year-old pitched fine for AA Portland and AAA Pawtucket:

2007 – 63.2 IP, 5-1, 2.96 ERA, 54 K, 44 BB

Both players would need to be on the Phillies 25-man roster for the entire season to remain Phils. So what are the chances? Probably slim; however, it’s possible we could see one of these guys on the Big League roster all year.

Looking at the rotation, this is the current setup:

SP – Cole Hamels
SP – Brett Myers
SP – Jamie Moyer
SP – Kyle Kendrick
SP – Adam Eaton
RP – Brad Lidge
RP – Tom Gordon
RP – JC Romero
RP – Ryan Madson
RP – Shane Youmans

There’s probably two more spots up for grabs, and even Youmans isn’t penciled in yet. I’d think Mike Zagurski and Scott Mathieson have the inside track, but I could see Holdzkom get a good shot at the ‘pen, considering the guy can pitch. Meanwhile, Eaton’s potential injury could spell him more time than originally planned, giving Blackley a chance to make the roster. He’s been said to get a tryout for the fifth spot in the rotation — he’ll be up against a healthy Eaton, JA Happ and JD Durbin, unless no one else is acquired.

Still, I couldn’t see these two making it all year. Money for nothing.

***

Of course, “money for nothing” has been the mantra of Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro and the brass upstairs. They don’t want to just throw around dollars to free agents and trading chips. So they’ll take fliers on question marks, has-beens and unproven youth. Now, just to put it out there, these guys do cost money too.

Bottom line is no matter what, winning costs money. Whether you’re signing Andruw Jones to an absurd $18M/year deal, or picking up ex-Pirates, you’re spending. Having one breakout player that could change your team’s position is the same as having six guys who might slightly change your team’s position.

It’s amazing to me how the Yankees and Red Sox, despite all their spending and trading, somehow have the best chips required to grab Johan Santana. How did they get Phil Hughes, Jacoby Ellsbury and Melky Cabrera? How did this happen?

I’ll tell you how — scouting, drafting, coaching.

The Phillies don’t have a great base of prospects. Carlos Carrasco figures to be a solid No. 3 starter; Adrian Cardenas could be an above-average second baseman; Josh Outman has No. 4 starter potential; Kyle Drabek and Joe Savery have huge upsides, but the risks are real. Everything else is a crapshoot — from Golson on down to Carpenter.

The stark truth is the Phillies won’t have Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino, Pat Burrell and Kyle Kendrick much longer. These guys are all (excusing Victorino, a Rule 5 guy) draftees, all Phils prospects, all guys made into stars (or close) through the system.

So figure those last two paragraphs — we don’t have the talent in the low levels; we have the talent in the highest level. Repeat that: We don’t have the talent in the low levels; we have the talent in the highest level.

In 2006, the Phils won 85 games. In 2005, they won 88. In 2004 and 2003, 86. In 2001, 86. This team is close. Damn close. And last year they broke the bubble. This year — this year — is the year they’re supposed to break the next bubble. They’re at least — at least — supposed to win the National League. And we’re playing cautious?

We’re worrying about the future?

Newsflash: This team won’t be the same next year. It won’t be the same in 2010. Judging by what’s down in the system, it may very well be worse. So the time is now.

The Winter Meetings showed the Phils lack the cajones to piece together a champion. Instead of going all in for Kosuke Fukudome; instead of putting together a package for one of the higher-tier pitchers (maybe Bedard could’ve been had?); instead of offering Hiroki Kuroda, they did nothing. Now they’re looking to maybe get Kris Benson. Maybe Nate McLouth is part of their plans.

Yes, the market isn’t great this year, but this team won’t be great for much longer. The chemistry is tremendous; the talent is tremendous. It’ll take years to rebuild the farm system no matter what’s the case. It’s still not a good farm system, and it wasn’t four years ago.

I’m worried the Phils are letting the boat drift off without ever giving it enough reinforcements. They could’ve grabbed David Riske for cheaper than JC Romero; instead, he’s a Brewer, and the Phils have Shane Youmans in the bullpen.

Maybe Youmans becomes a stud in 2008. Maybe these Rule 5 guys are lights out. Maybe. But to often the Phillies rely on “maybe,” and too often we get the same results:

89
85
88
86
86

Jimmy Rollins is saying 100 wins for the Phillies in 2008.

100?

Maybe he’s counting Spring Training.

Phillies Winter Meetings: Garbage time

Time to cleanup some of the Winter Meetings mess:

• Aaron Rowand won’t be offered five years from the Phillies. Though he will be pricey, there’s still an opportunity the Phillies could slightly overspend to retain him in a three-year deal. The Dodgers have been rumored to be talking with Andruw Jones (EDIT: DODGERS SIGN JONES TO 2Y/$36M DEAL) and the Cubs look like frontrunners for Kosuke Fukudome. While there are about 10 teams interested, the other major contender for Rowand seems to be the White Sox; expect the Phils and Sox to battle for his services.
• The most valuable player the Phils have been rumored with is Erik Bedard. There was some talk on 610 WIP about a deal for Bedard, including Carlos Carrasco, Shane Victorino, Jason Jaramillo, and Kyle Kendrick. Though some have laughed at that proposal, I don’t find it a bad deal for either side (in fact, we’re giving up too much there). Still, one can’t assume the Phils are frontrunners for the Orioles’ lefty.
• Multiple sources have said the Phillies are out of the running for Hiroki Kuroda, as the Mariners, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks are among the finalists. That can be taken as truth.
• Tadahito Iguchi remains open to playing third base; the Brewers have reportedly also expressed interest. And despite the release, Iguchi can be obtained through waivers and play for the Phils on Opening Day; therefore, forget a report that signing Iguchi is unlikely. More than anything, it shows the Phillies are looking hard at third base options, despite having two committed to that position in 2008.
• The Phillies released Julio Mateo, the midseason transaction who never saw time in Philadelphia, paying merely in AA Reading. Rumors are he never got a call — despite his Major League playing time — because of a pending domestic assault case. That’s a very likely claim, and dumping him before he goes to trial seems like the type of PR the Phillies regularly practice. That’s a shame.
• Pitchers the Phillies are rumored to have interest with: Mark Prior, Damaso Marte, John Grabow, Kris Benson, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Anthony Reyes, Julian Tavarez, Carlos Silva. That’s a real collage of guys, but two things stand out — fourth-tier starting pitching and lefthanded relief. Judging by the list, Gillick may be thinking about JC Romero as an inning guy, not a LOOGY. Of the starters, I like Colon most (we know this already), but if he can’t be had, I could see Benson in there. Reyes is a project that could be worth the flier.
• Hitters the Phillies are rumored to have interest with: Pedro Feliz, Kosuke Fukudome, Hank Blalock, Geoff Jenkins, Nate McLouth, Tadahito Iguchi. Smaller list, but it’s third base and right field up for hire. Rumors are Jenkins is out of the price range, so a guy like McLouth would be fiscally fitting. I expect the Phils to try and shore up third base by the end of the offseason.

The Winter Meetings end tomorrow, and despite all this above talk, not all of it may be even close to truth. The Phillies may be the most guarded team in baseball when it comes to transactions, so for all this, it could be an intriguing day tomorrow. Which in a way, I expect.

Rumor: Iguchi could play third for Phillies in 2008

Todd Zolecki is reporting the Phillies have renewed interest in Tadahito Iguchi.

Pat Gillick told reporters the second baseman who provided a huge lift off the bench during Chase Utley’s injury and beyond may be more receptive about the prospect of playing third base next season. This is after saying about a month ago that he wanted to start at second base for a Major League team. He hasn’t been rumored in much anything since.

Iguchi, who turned 33 today, went .304/.361/.442 for the Phils in abbreviated action in 2007. Total, he went .276/.347/.421 with 9 home runs and 43 runs batted in.

Iguchi doesn’t mean a huge upgrade at third base, let’s get that straight. He isn’t quite capable of a 20-home run season, nor is he truly capable of a .300 season. Is it a cheap solution at a weakness position? Yes. Is it overwhelmingly strong? No.

Of course, one can’t think Wes Helms will duplicate the same terrible play he exhibited in 2007. But if the Phils brought back Iguchi, Helms would become immediately expendable. But he’s likely worth something greater than a bag of balls and something less than an actual Major League-ready player.

Winter Meetings open: The trouble with standing ‘Pat’

The MLB Winter Meetings are underway in Nashville (Nashville?). The major league-wide storylines:

- The Johan Santana Sweepstakes: Yankees vs. Red Sox.
- Is Miguel Cabrera getting dealt?
- Will a young pitcher (Bedard, Haren) get dealt?
- Japanese players possibly making a splash.

The major Phillies storylines:

- Does Aaron Rowand get five years somewhere; if not, will he take a trip back to Philadelphia?
- The Phillies look to address the pitching staff with possibly one final addition.
- Are they finished patching up 2007’s league-worst bullpen?

As far as the Phillies, Pat Gillick has stressed this won’t be a heavy Winter Meetings for both the team and for baseball, but you have to take that with a grain of salt — he denied chasing Mike Lowell forever, yet they had an offer ready for him. Still, it remains pitching is highest on the team’s radar, and the free agent pool has already been stricken as poor.

The big pitching names out there are still Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse, and I would be surprised if the Phils were in on either, since they went hard after Randy Wolf, who commanded far less than both. Instead, I see the Phils gunning for Bartolo Colon in free agency, still a good choice for me.

Trade targets? Jayson Stark has the Phils interested in Erik Bedard, which isn’t news. Phils scouts have been seen in Baltimore this season, and there’s been word that the Phils had been talking with the O’s. One O’s writer thought it was for Melvin Mora; clearly the Phils have higher standards. Bedard would look wonderful in a Phillies uniform, but for Carrasco, Cardenas and Madson (or something like that)? That’s the risk.

I say if the Phils can offer up Outman, Cardenas and Victorino for Bedard and Mora, I’ll take it. Then pursue Rowand hard. Sure you lose Vic, but you platoon Werth and Snelling for a while and get a glimpse at Brandon Watson. Production lost? Yes. But add Mora, and production gained at third. Not much, but enough to remain a top-5 NL offense.

I’m worried the Phils are finished patching together the bullpen. They still need a late-innings guru. David Riske isn’t yet a Brewer, so there could still be time on him. Jeremy Affeldt still lingers. Truth is, I just feel really uncomfortable about Romero/Madson/Gordon/Lidge.

—–

- League-wide, I think the Yankees will grab Santana. The Sox seem to be too stubborn on its young players (either Ellsbury or Lester now), while the Yanks are in more a position of desperation. Santana/Pettite/Wang is a very formidable 1-2-3, and with A-Rod back on board, the Yanks could suddenly be the class of the AL East again.

- Miguel Cabrera will go to the Angels. Though right now the gears have stopped, I see the Angels ponying up enough for the 24-year-old. As much as I’d love to have him in pinstripes, you’d be giving up way too much for him (one of the big boys).

- For all my talk about Bedard, I don’t think he’ll be dealt. Same for Dan Haren. Looking at the teams contending for young pitching, none really has enough to deal, sans the Sox and Yanks. The Mets shot themselves in the foot by trading away Lastings Milledge. Sure he’s overhyped, but he makes a good No. 2 in a deal with Carlos Gomez.

- Fukudome will go to the Giants. Kuroda will be snatched by the Mariners. The Dodgers will come to terms with Andruw Jones. That leaves Rowand to choose between the Phils and White Sox, when all is said and done. It’s a battle the Phils may lose.

- That brings me to my final point: The Phillies are in trouble. Just going by position, the Phils have:

Lost Aaron Rowand/Gained Chris Snelling
Lost Michael Bourn/Gained Brandon Watson
Lost Geoff Geary/Gained Brad Lidge
Lost Tadahito Iguchi/Gained Michael Restovich
Lost Antonio Alfonseca/Gained Shane Youmans
Lost Abraham Nunez/Gained Eric Bruntlett

And they moved Brett Myers from one place to another, not gaining anyone in the process. Of those above deals, I’ll take three of them (Lidge, Youmans, Bruntlett – and not by much on the latter two); the other three are gross failures for the Phils. Of course, who knows how 2008 will play out, but on paper, this is a horrible return.

Last year at this time, the Phillies pulled the trigger on the Freddy Garcia trade. They lost one big prospect (Gio Gonzalez) and one work-in-progress (Gavin Floyd), gaining one player thought to be a 15-20-game winner. That worked out horribly — Garcia was an absolute failure in Philly.

The Phils were able to defeat that deal through two huge pieces of luck: Kyle Kendrick and Kyle Lohse. The two of them, together, had the season we hoped Garcia would have. But who becomes the new Aaron Rowand? Who becomes the new Iguchi? More importantly, what about the weaknesses they haven’t fixed? One starting pitcher; one reliever; third base? Are they content with this team in 2008?

Gillick says he’s not spending money just to spend it. That’s fine. I admire that — you need a plan and you don’t want to just throw around cash. But the truth is this — this team won 89 games last year; most years, that’ll barely win you a Wild Card. Can we say right now, with the moves this team made, that they’re better off in 2008 than they were to end 2007? I can’t say that.

Expect to see Watson in Philly; news and notes

First, news:

- The Padres signed Randy Wolf over the weekend. No problem with that. Wolf obviously wanted to stay on the West Coast, and the Pads provided him with a good home. He should perform well at PETCO, if healthy. If. Would he have benefited the Phils? Maybe. But that’s a gamble you take with every starter — no matter if you know him or not. That’s why I continue to ride the Bartolo Colon train.

- Recent rumors have the Phils tied to Geoff Jenkins, but in an outside role. I documented earlier why he doesn’t fit. Give me Luis Gonzalez instead. I’d still much rather have Shannon Stewart.

- Aaron Rowand is still unsigned, and the Phils offered him arbitration. That’s good. The Phils would win the first round draft pick and supplemental round pick from the team that bags him, unless the team is one of baseball’s worst 15 in 2007. The Dodgers are supposedly the front-runner, which means we’ll get the sandwich pick and a supplemental (the Dodgers, ironically enough, were No. 15). But that’s still very good. But Rowand may stay on the market for a while, as he still wants five years. The Phils won’t give it to him. If he caves and the Phils can grab him for 4Y/$45M or something like that, I’m all in.

- Melvin Mora is not ever, ever, ever coming to Philadelphia. Ever. Whatever.

During the boring Thanksgiving holiday, the Phillies made some very minor moves, picking up seven — count ‘em, seven — Minor League players on league minimum deals.

The heavy seven:
- Michael Restovich: Slugging three-true-outcomes outfielder, 29.
- Brandon Watson: Speedy, slick-hitting outfielder, 26.
- Matt Childers: Career Minor Leaguer with liquor-loving tongue, 29.
- Kris Wilson: Pitcher had some coffee breaks with Yanks, Royals, 30.
- Casey Smith: Versatile infielder who can hit a little, 29.
- Andy Tracy: In my baseball card collection; hits a bit, 33.
- Ron Chiavacci: Veteran Minor Leaguer with flame-throwing arm, 30.

Of the seven, Watson has the best chance of finding Philadelphia, and really has the ability to match what Michael Bourn gave us this year. Here’s a sample, from his stint with the Nationals.

It’s nice to see the Phils stockpiling the upper half of the Lehigh Valley roster, especially with guys in the “prime years” of their careers. Last year’s AAA team was atrocious; this year’s team has the potential already (with Mathieson, Happ, Jaramillo) to be a force in the International League.

What’s also nice is it gives the Phillies more options than Joe Thurston or Eude Brito or even Chris Roberson. One of these seven is likely to pan out into something productive. And who knows, we may have another Chris Coste on our hands with Restovich or Tracy. Having a pile like this to choose from is always a good thing.

News: Youman on board; rumor: Phils interested in Mora

Plenty of news and rumors to get to:

- The Phillies picked up Shane Youman off waivers. The former Pirate left hander went 3-5 with a 5.97 ERA in 16 games with the Pirates in 2007.

At 28, Youman is nearing the turn of his career. Is he Major League worthy or a Minor Leaguer for life? A stint with the Phillies should tell. Youman isn’t anything completely special, though he throws his share of ground balls. He can start, but would be more effective in a long relief/6th inning role.

Is he an answer? Not really. But it almost seems as if the Phils are finishing the bullpen off for the offseason, concentrating more on starting pitching and third base (more on this later). I’d be wary if this is the end of the ‘pen additions.

- The Randy Wolf rumors are still very strong. No word yet on Hiroki Kuroda.

- New rumors have the Phillies interested in Orioles 3B Melvin Mora. He has been quoted as saying he’d waive his no-trade clause only for the Phils, Yankees and Mets, and those teams aren’t quite looking for third base help. He’s making $17M over the next two years — not an attractive bounty, for sure. If the Phils are willing to pay it all, they shouldn’t be giving up any more than a retread non-prospect; if they make the O’s pay some or all of the deal, one of the prospects might have to be on the table.

Here are Mora’s numbers from the last three seasons:

2005: 149 G / .283 / .348 / .474 / 27 HR / 88 RBI / 50 BB / 112 K / 3.627 SSR
2006: 155 G / .274 / .342 / .391 / 16 HR / 83 RBI / 54 BB / 99 K / 3.433 SSR
2007: 126 G / .274 / .341 / .418 / 14 HR / 58 RBI / 47 BB / 83 K / 2.924 SSR

He has dropped off considerably the past few seasons, but last year’s SSR puts him on the bubble of starter and platoon. With Dobbs being a 2.895 and Helms a 2.429, Mora would seem to be an upgrade. He also cut down on strikeouts (though he was hurt for a good portion of the season). Defensively, he’s a liability, but not as bad as Helms or Dobbs (.777 zone rating).

Is he worth fhe flier? Not for the money, and not for the huge prospect. He’s worth what Jayson Werth is worth, for good pun usage and comparison. If the Phils can give up fodder and take on a little of his salary (say $4M per?), it can be done. (Other rumors say Adam Eaton could be swapped directly. Interesting. Would I? I don’t know … )

- The Baltimore Sun reported yesterday that Mora was going to play Winter Ball in Venezuela, and play more outfield during his time there. This could be somewhat of a blessing in disguise if the Phils were to take him on. Mora could platoon at third with Helms while playing a mimi-platoon in right field with Werth. Kill two birds with one stone.

Next I’ll look at the Minor League players the Phillies recently picked up, then get to some Hall of Fame discussion.