Can a current Phillie get to the Hall of Fame?

My recent post concerning the 2008 Hall of Fame nominations urged voters to take a good, hard look at Dale Murphy.

Today, I want to take a look at the Hall of Fame prospects of current Phillies.

Looking at the current 25-man hybrid (excludes free agents and adds acquisitions), here’s what we can assume:

Will never make Hall of Fame:
- Chris Coste
- Wes Helms
- Greg Dobbs
- Eric Bruntlett
- JC Romero
- Tom Gordon

Has extremely small glimmer of hope:
- Jayson Werth
- Chris Snelling
- Adam Eaton

Too early to tell either way:
- Carlos Ruiz
- Shane Victorino
- Kyle Kendrick

These 12 figure not to make any Hall of Fame discussion. Of course, Kendrick can prove to be a solid starter for his career, etc.,etc., but as it stands now, there’s no reason to even consider these men.

With those guys out of the way, we have another eight candidates for Hall glory. None are shoo-ins, but none aren’t completely out of reach at the moment.

Here are my predicted 2010 benchmarks for pitchers:
W – 260
SO – 2,750
SV – 400

And the candidates:

Brett Myers
Age: 27
Experience: 6 seasons
W: 59 (260)
SO: 774 (2,750)
SV: 21 (400)
He gets in if: He can put together another 10 solid, above-average seasons, at least. His best comparison now is John Smoltz, who was ahead of him by about 15 wins after his age 26 season. Of course, Smoltz had his worst season ever at age 27, so there’s hope yet for Myers. He’ll need to rack up his strikeouts, however, as that could be his best way to Cooperstown. So 10 seasons of 14-win, 180-strikeout baseball. That puts him at over 200 wins and over 2,500 strikeouts. Sprinkle in a two or three light seasons, and you may have a case. But it’s a hell of a case.
Odds: 35:1

Brad Lidge
Age: 31
Experience: 6 seasons
W: 23 (260)
SO: 561 (2,750)
SV: 123 (400)
He gets in if: He has eight seasons of 30-plus-save ball. So far, he’s had two. And he’s already 31. With his injury history, I can’t really see him putting that type of resume together. By comparison, Trevor Hoffman was coming off his fourth-consecutive 30-plus-save season (53 in 1998) at age 30. Then he rattled off another eight of them (only one season below 40) in the next nine years. Yeah, Brad, try that.
Odds: 48:1

Jamie Moyer
Age: 45
Experience: 21 seasons
W: 230 (260)
SO: 2,125 (2,750)
SV: 0 (400)
He gets in if: He retires today. No, really. By waiting one season, Moyer could be jeopardizing himself the Hall because of possible retirements from better bets (Clemens, Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux, etc.). Also, not one Cy Young (and just 2 top-10 finishes) hurts as well. Of course, who knows what the Mitchell Report may bring, but that’s a different story for a different time. As of this writing, Moyer is a great pitcher with an amazing resume of iron (he’s started 30 games in 10 of his last 11 seasons) and incredible success at a late age (21-7 with a 3.27 ERA at age 40). He won’t hit the benchmarks (unless he goes until 50), but longevity says a lot. Still, his Hall call depends more upon his peers than anything else.
Odds: 17:1

Cole Hamels
Age: 24
Experience: 2 seasons
W: 24 (260)
SO: 322 (2,750)
SV: 0 (400)
He gets in if: He continues to be Cole Hamels for 70 percent of his Major League career, which, barring injury, could very well happen. Of course, it could very well not happen, but I try to be optimistic. Or, taking the opposite route, he could be lights out for another 10 seasons, ending his career with a freak injury and making him a general shoo-in due to the Kirby Puckett effect. Look at Johan Santana — he’s already being called a Hall of Famer and he hasn’t yet surpassed 100 wins. A slew of seasons of complete dominance could set him on his way. But until we can make any absolute decisions, let’s sit back and watch another couple years.
Odds: 19:1

Here are my predicted 2010 hitting benchmarks:
HR – 530
RBI – 1,600
H – 300

Here are the candidates:

Pat Burrell
Age: 31
Experience: 8 seasons
HR: 218 (530)
RBI: 741 (1,600)
H: 1,032 (3,000)
He gets in if: He amps it up in his 30s, which means he moves to the American League. Burrell is consistent — 30 HR and 100 RBI is nice, but not Hall of Fame-worthy, not in this day and age. He’ll need a few seasons of 40 HR and 130 RBI. It’s not too late, but at his current pace, he’s merely a slightly above-average slugger with a nice OBP.
Odds: 31:1

Chase Utley
Age: 29
Experience: 5 seasons
HR: 97 (530)
RBI: 388 (1,600)
H: 640 (3,000)
He gets in if: He stays the best. Utley is fast on his way to becoming a legend, well — to us. His Hall of Fame Standards and Monitor have him halfway there, but that does that mean another three seasons will have him in Cooperstown. I’d say 10 years of being the league’s undisputed best second baseman will get him the call. Seven more years of it; that is a long time, by the way. He could definitely do it, but it’s still a while off.
Odds: 21:1

Ryan Howard
Age: 28
Experience: 4 seasons
HR: 129 (530)
RBI: 353 (1,600)
H: 425 (3,000)
He gets in if: He doesn’t become Cecil Fielder. Yes, Howard is also halfway there, according to the HOF stats. But Fielder was also halfway there at age 28. Fielder dropped off heavily at 33, meaning it’ll take a bunch of strong seasons for Howard to get in real HOF consideration. Of course, Fielder didn’t take great care of his body, so if Howard can do such and keep it going for another 10 seasons, he’s a shoo-in. Another thing: He already has the MVP that Fielder never won.
Odds: 11:1

Jimmy Rollins
Age: 29
Experience: 8 seasons
HR: 114 (530)
RBI: 485 (1,600)
H: 1,307 (3,000)
He gets in if: He plays this well for another eight seasons. Which isn’t completely difficult. Rollins has been consistent throughout his career, missing only eight games in two seasons, and less in his others. That’s a hell of a solid career. Meanwhile, he’s averaged more than 190 hits the past three seasons; he may not duplicate 212 again (or he might), but if he remains close to that average, there’s no doubt he could hit 2,500, and from there, it’s all determination. One problem may be who he retires with — he could possibly be in trouble with A-Rod, Albert Pujols, Edgar Renteria and David Wright in his jurisdiction. But as it stands, with one MVP on his shelf, Rollins has the potential to become the Phils’ next Hall of Famer.
Odds: 9:1

One, yes, one Phillie on HOF ballot

It’s already been said that this year’s newcomers to the Hall of Fame nominations block are nowhere near Cooperstown-ready. Yes, 2008 is the year of the nobody — before we induct Rickey Henderson next year, before we debate Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff in 2010 and before we go through the Larry Walker vs. Jeff Bagwell debate in 2011, we’ll have to toil through the last of the 70s/80s era and the beginning of the 90s era.

Of course, the ballots starting in 2013 will be stacked, with Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds (and the debate), Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Mike Piazza, Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and on and on and on and on.

But we must focus on 2008 first. And what a ballot (by possibility):

The very well might be his year division:
- Jim Rice
- Goose Gossage
- Bert Blyleven

The possibility division:
- Don Mattingly
- Andre Dawson
- Dave Parker

The Ace in the Hole division:
- Dale Murphy

The just missed division:
- Tim (Don’t call me “Rock”) Raines
- Jack Morris
- Lee Smith
- Alan Trammell
- Harold Baines

The Joe Morgan thinks he should be in division:
- Dave Concepcion

The a few great seasons short division:
- David Justice
- Tommy John
- Shawon Dunston
- Chuck Knoblauch
- Chuck Finley
- Travis Fryman

The cheater division:
- Mark McGwire

The spare votes for fallen comrade division:
- Rod Beck

The he had one great season division:
- Brady Anderson
- Robb Nen
- Jose Rijo

You’ll get the same old yelling matches as always (Awww Rice has gotta be in! Wicked smaht! … You kiddin me? C’mon Mad Dog, how you leave out Donny Baseball? … Goose was the greatest reliever ever! Ever! … Andre Dawson was tops in the game for like two seasons! … Maybe we should let McGwire in. …), but I bet no one will mention my Ace in the Hole, Mr. Dale Murphy. Yup, the Murph. He’s the only Phillie on the ballot, and of all these guys, deserves the nod.

Murphy is a two-time NL MVP, finishing in the top-10 four consecutive seasons. He owned the NL with Mike Schmidt in the early-80s. He’s a 7-time All Star. His Gray Ink has him at 147, three above the HOF barrier, while his HOF Monitor is at a well done 115.5. He was also extremely durable, missing only chunks of two seasons because of injury. And during a time when pitching was king, Murphy was one of the top-5 offensive forces in the game for at least five years.

I’m not saying Rice and Goose shouldn’t get nods. They should. Rice is slightly better than Murph, and Goose was the original fireman, and it did it quite well for a slew of seasons. But Dale Murphy deserves a huge share of votes, because he could literally steal some thunder from the juiced-ball boys in the next few years. How does a 2-time MVP with great offensive numbers for the 80s stack up with a lifetime DH who never won the MVP? Hmmm, Edgar?

Of course, we won’t reap the benefits. Murphy will go in as a Brave. Boo.

That’s okay — at our pace, today’s Phils have four possible Hall of Famers in the works. I’ll look at that more closely next time.

Jimmy Rollins wins NL MVP

Jimmy Rollins: MVP.

A look at the moments that made 2007 the Year of J-Roll.

Jan. 22: Rollins to Mets: Beat us.

The year began with a boom in the National League East, as Rollins admitted the Phillies were superior (on paper) than their New York rivals. It lit a fire under the Mets, who opened the season with a lead in the East, including a big series win against Rollins (who made a crucial error) and the Phils at Shea Stadium. But, as we know, the fire wasn’t made to last for six months.

April 25: After starting the season 4-11, Rollins helps lead the Phillies to a fifth win in a row, a 9-3 win over Washington. Rollins knocks his eighth homer of the season, keeping the National League lead. He upped his slugging percentage to .659.

June 5-7: The month of May was not particularly good for J-Roll, but he came back strong in June, going 7-14 with a home run, 4 RBIs and 2 SBs in a crucial 3-game sweep of the Mets at Shea.

July 13-14: Maybe feeling snubbed after the All Star Game, which he wasn’t picked to attend, Rollins goes a combined 6-10 with homers in back-to-back games agasint the Cardinals, preventing the team’s 10,000th loss for a short while. Rollins got pushed aside by Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and the Brewers’ JJ Hardy.

August 27-30: Rollins puts together four consecutive multi-hit games, knocking two homers and getting on base half the time against the Mets in a gigantic four-game sweep at the Vault. It pulls the Phils close to the Mets and sets up a September to remember.

September 15: Rollins strikes a pitch to centerfield in the eighth inning of a tie game against the Mets at Shea. Carlos Beltran, usually a rock in center, misplays the fly and has to backtrack. His glove doesn’t reach the ball, sailing over his head and to the wall. Rollins barrels into third base with his 18th triple of the season, scoring Wes Helms and Pete LaForest and giving the Phils the lead. The Phils would win, sweeping the Mets and preparing the team for a final two-week surge for the NL East title.

September 30: The final game of the regular season. The Phillies and Mets are tied for first place in the NL East, and already in Queens, the Mets are down 7-1 to the Marlins. Jimmy Rollins leads off the Phillies offense with a single. Then he steals second. Then he steals third. Chase Utley flies a shallow pop to right field, and Rollins, probably biting his nails at the chance, takes off once the ball hits the mit. He charges the line and comes home standing up. 1-0 Phils.

Later, Rollins gets on base via a walk. Standing at second, he waits as Ryan Howard unloads on a pitch and drives it just over the head of Rafael Belliard and into shallow right field. Yet again, Rollins is off. The throw comes in, but Rollins is way ahead of it, and begins his slide from about halfway down the third base line. he slides right across the plate, like a glass plate on a sheet of ice, gliding to the end of the circle, where he stands and gets a big hand from Aaron Rowand.

Then, with the Phils needing an insurance run, two are on base. Rollins comes to the plate, the crowd going nuts, anticipating something — it’s going to be big, they just know it. He finds his pitch and rips the ball on a line down the first base line. One run scores. Two runs score. The cameras show Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand cheering the runs on, then Rowand points excitedly to second base — Jimmy hasn’t stopped. The throw comes in, Rollins is on his horse, Burrell is jumping in the dugout … slide … safe.

Wheeler and Matthews go crazy. The fans go crazy. Rollins raises his arms in the air and claps. Triple No. 20. The 20-20-20-20 season is complete. Rollins’ MVP victory is solidified. Rollins’ preseason words are vindicated. It’s the best moment of the season … of his career — until one hour later.

Did you know Rollins missed only 12 innings of baseball in 2007? Twelve! ! That’s a gamer.

Congratulations, Jimmy Rollins, 2007 Most Valuable Player of the National League.

NL MVP: Holliday or Rollins?

While the hot stove continues to burn, other questions linger for the Phillies. One of the more important — though superficial — questions is: Will Jimmy Rollins win the 2007 National League MVP Award?

When the Baseball Writers Association of America announces the winner Monday, public perception is one of two men will be given the honor — Rollins or the Colorado Rockies’ Matt Holiday. Other possibilites include Prince Fielder, David Wright and Chipper Jones. You can also lump in Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Jake Peavy, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

For one, it’s a heavy field. This year, it seems more impressive seasons came out of the National League. After Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, the AL’s big season output comes from Carlos Pena, David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero (who had relatively down years). The NL field features a ton of big seasons, and I haven’t even mentioned the career seasons by Aaron Rowand, Eric Byrnes, Ryan Braun, Brad Hawpe and Russell Martin.

But chances are the fight will be over Holliday and Rollins. Both had spectacular seasons, career years for them and two of the better seasons in recent memory. They also had complete offensive seasons. Here are the raw offensive numbers:

Rollins: 162 G / .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB
Holliday: 161 G / .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB

Holliday won the NL batting title and finished fifth in the league in home runs. Rollins, meanwhile, led the league in runs and recorded baseball’s fourth ever 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases), joining Willie Mays, Frank Wildfire Schulte and Curtis Granderson, who also accomplished the feat last season.

But offensive numbers can be misleading, especially when one factors in the home field. Both Holliday and Rollins play in hitters parks, but looking at this, it shows Holliday clearly performed better in Coors Field:

Rollins (Citizens Bank Park): .286 / 18 HR / 47 RBI / .336 OBP / .556 SLG
Holliday (Coors Field): .376 / 25 HR / 82 RBI / .435 OBP / .722 SLG

Advantage Holliday. But if you look at his road numbers, they’re practically the same as Rollins’. Of course, you can’t choose where you play your home games, so you can’t judge Holliday too strongly for this. Still, in neutral ground, Rollins had a better offensive season.

You can’t deny, however, that Holliday was the main offensive force during his team’s run to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. According to my Subjective Stats Ratings, Holliday was clearly above his Rockies peers offensively:

1. Holliday: .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB / 4.653 SSR
2. Troy Tulowitzki: .291 / 24 HR / 99 RBI / 104 R / 7 SB / 3.883 SSR
3. Brad Hawpe: .291 / 29 HR / 116 RBI / 80 R / 0 SB / 3.866 SSR
4. Garrett Atkins: .301 / 25 HR / 111 RBI / 83 R / 3 SB / 3.840 SSR
5. Todd Helton: .320 / 17 HR / 91 RBI / 86 R / 0 SB / 3.640 SSR

Meanwhile, Rollins led the Phillies in SSR, but his rating is far closer to his peers:

1. Rollins: .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB / 4.537 SSR
2. Ryan Howard: .268 / 47 HR / 136 RBI / 94 R / 1 SB / 4.306 SSR
3. Chase Utley: .332 / 22 HR / 103 RBI / 104 R / 9 SB / 4.065 SSR
4. Aaron Rowand: .309 / 27 HR / 89 RBI / 105 R / 6 SB / 3.967 SSR
5. Pat Burrell: .256 / 30 HR / 97 RBI / 77 R / 0 SB / 3.635 SSR

And, yes, Holliday has a higher SSR than Rollins. Here is the 2007 National League top-five in SSR:

1. Holliday: .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB / 4.653 SSR
2. Rollins: .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB / 4.537 SSR
3. David Wright: .325 / 30 HR / 107 RBI / 113 RBI / 34 SB / 4.482 SSR
4. Prince Fielder: .288 / 50 HR / 119 RBI / 109 R / 2 SB / 4.431 SSR
5. Hanley Ramirez: .332 / 29 HR / 81 RBI / 125 R / 51 SB / 4.405 SSR

Just for a barometer, here are the top three in the American League:

1. Alex Rodriguez: .314 / 54 HR / 156 RBI / 143 R / 24 SB / 5.339 SSR
2. Magglio Ordonez: .363 / 28 HR / 139 RBI / 117 R / 4 SB / 4.540 SSR
3. David Ortiz: .332 / 35 HR / 117 RBI / 116 R / 3 SB / 4.479 SSR

So, while Holliday has a higher SSR than Rollins, it isn’t much a difference, as Rodriguez’ difference over Ordonez is astronomical. (Of course, A-Rod had one of baseball’s greatest single seasons, but it shows Holliday didn’t have an outright unanimous MVP campaign.)

We’ll say Holliday wins the offensive battle, but by a skinny margin, especially if you want to factor in home fields. Thus, the battle comes down to intangibles.

Defense: Rollins won a Gold Glove for his performance, maybe his best defensive season yet. He made few errors (they were either complete mind blunders or incredibly hard plays), made more outstanding plays and provided huge solace to a left infield that included Wes Helms and the almost-as-bad Greg Dobbs for most of the season.

Holliday, meanwhile, made bad gaffes in the field, including a potentially-damning play in the Wild Card playoff. That game counted, remember.

Leadership: Unquestionably, the Colorado Rockies were led by Todd Helton. He was the heart and soul. Holliday was the unspoken leader of the offense, much like Utley. So who was the Phillies leader? Rollins, again unquestionably. It was he who delivered the opening salvo for the 2007 season — “We are the team to beat, on paper, in the NL East this year” — it was he who delivered offensively when the team struggled in April (he led the league in home runs until May), and it was he who played so consistently strong that his steady play was overshadowed by second half pushes by Burrell, Howard, and key bench players.

Really, Rollins was a stalwart, and kept the offense afloat when nothing was going right. Holliday merely spoke with his bat, and it wasn’t until the Rockies’ pitching righted the ship that the Rox finally began to win heavily.

Supporting cast: Like I said, Holliday was far and away above his teammates offensively. But take this into account: The Rockies supporting cast was much more consistently reliable over the season than the Phillies. Tulowitzki, Hawpe, Atkins, Helton, Kaz Matsui and Willy Taveras all posted seasons over 3.00 in SSR, meaning they had standard everyday-player seasons.

While the Phillies offense is higher-profile, the drop off is tremendous. Howard, Utley, Rowand, Burrell and Shane Victorino posted seasons over 3.00 in SSR. And after Victorino (at 3.439), next is Jayson Werth (2.951).

So the Rockies had seven everday-player seasons, while the Phillies had six. Yes, not a huge margin, but telling. Also, the Phils suffered a plethora of injuries, and the pitching … there need not be a comparison. Offense was much more essential to the Phillies than the Rockies, and the Phillies needed better seasons from their best players to match. Rollins beats Holliday here.

Team performance: It’s really a wash, with both the Rockies and Phillies posting identical records and, really, with identical situations. Both teams needed to post huge Septembers to enter the playoffs, which they did. They both partly relied on the teams ahead of them freefalling. And, both teams had strong offenses (Phillies better) and relatively poor pitching (Rockies better).

Impact: Part of the Most Valuable Player conversation must include impact — impact on the team, the league, the game. It’s arguable Hanley Ramirez had a better offensive season than anyone in the NL, but what’s his impact all the way down in floundering (pun) Florida? Call it the Tim Raines corollary — should someone with more of an image win the award? This isn’t necessarily a factor, but it can be taken into brief account.

Rollins plays in Philadelphia. He’s known by many baseball fans and fairweather watchers. He speaks out. He makes headlines. Not as much as an A-Rod or even a David Wright (then again, that’s debatable), but he makes himself known. And in the Philly market, on a team that has forever been on the cusp of great success, that counts.

Holliday, meanwhile, plays out in Denver, where baseball traditionally takes the back seat to football and hockey (yes, this can be said for Philly, but over a long period of time, it’s been said to be a huge baseball city too). Holliday is one of the “who are they” guys who crept onto the mainstream scene this season. Not as many people recognize him, and like teammate Helton, many wouldn’t even know where he played or what he’s done. Yes, this is very superficial, but tell me writers don’t look at this.

Verdict: Holliday had the superior offensive season in 2007, but Rollins’ “value” is worth more. He led his team with his mouth and his talent. He played every inning of every game. He never slowed. And his team defeated injury and criticism to win its first division title in 14 years. If either wins the award, there wouldn’t be much debate. They’re both worthy of the title. But who was more valuable? Rollins.

And will he win? I think so.