News: Youman on board; rumor: Phils interested in Mora

Plenty of news and rumors to get to:

- The Phillies picked up Shane Youman off waivers. The former Pirate left hander went 3-5 with a 5.97 ERA in 16 games with the Pirates in 2007.

At 28, Youman is nearing the turn of his career. Is he Major League worthy or a Minor Leaguer for life? A stint with the Phillies should tell. Youman isn’t anything completely special, though he throws his share of ground balls. He can start, but would be more effective in a long relief/6th inning role.

Is he an answer? Not really. But it almost seems as if the Phils are finishing the bullpen off for the offseason, concentrating more on starting pitching and third base (more on this later). I’d be wary if this is the end of the ‘pen additions.

- The Randy Wolf rumors are still very strong. No word yet on Hiroki Kuroda.

- New rumors have the Phillies interested in Orioles 3B Melvin Mora. He has been quoted as saying he’d waive his no-trade clause only for the Phils, Yankees and Mets, and those teams aren’t quite looking for third base help. He’s making $17M over the next two years — not an attractive bounty, for sure. If the Phils are willing to pay it all, they shouldn’t be giving up any more than a retread non-prospect; if they make the O’s pay some or all of the deal, one of the prospects might have to be on the table.

Here are Mora’s numbers from the last three seasons:

2005: 149 G / .283 / .348 / .474 / 27 HR / 88 RBI / 50 BB / 112 K / 3.627 SSR
2006: 155 G / .274 / .342 / .391 / 16 HR / 83 RBI / 54 BB / 99 K / 3.433 SSR
2007: 126 G / .274 / .341 / .418 / 14 HR / 58 RBI / 47 BB / 83 K / 2.924 SSR

He has dropped off considerably the past few seasons, but last year’s SSR puts him on the bubble of starter and platoon. With Dobbs being a 2.895 and Helms a 2.429, Mora would seem to be an upgrade. He also cut down on strikeouts (though he was hurt for a good portion of the season). Defensively, he’s a liability, but not as bad as Helms or Dobbs (.777 zone rating).

Is he worth fhe flier? Not for the money, and not for the huge prospect. He’s worth what Jayson Werth is worth, for good pun usage and comparison. If the Phils can give up fodder and take on a little of his salary (say $4M per?), it can be done. (Other rumors say Adam Eaton could be swapped directly. Interesting. Would I? I don’t know … )

- The Baltimore Sun reported yesterday that Mora was going to play Winter Ball in Venezuela, and play more outfield during his time there. This could be somewhat of a blessing in disguise if the Phils were to take him on. Mora could platoon at third with Helms while playing a mimi-platoon in right field with Werth. Kill two birds with one stone.

Next I’ll look at the Minor League players the Phillies recently picked up, then get to some Hall of Fame discussion.

One, yes, one Phillie on HOF ballot

It’s already been said that this year’s newcomers to the Hall of Fame nominations block are nowhere near Cooperstown-ready. Yes, 2008 is the year of the nobody — before we induct Rickey Henderson next year, before we debate Edgar Martinez and Fred McGriff in 2010 and before we go through the Larry Walker vs. Jeff Bagwell debate in 2011, we’ll have to toil through the last of the 70s/80s era and the beginning of the 90s era.

Of course, the ballots starting in 2013 will be stacked, with Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds (and the debate), Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Frank Thomas, Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Mike Piazza, Trevor Hoffman, Mariano Rivera, and on and on and on and on.

But we must focus on 2008 first. And what a ballot (by possibility):

The very well might be his year division:
- Jim Rice
- Goose Gossage
- Bert Blyleven

The possibility division:
- Don Mattingly
- Andre Dawson
- Dave Parker

The Ace in the Hole division:
- Dale Murphy

The just missed division:
- Tim (Don’t call me “Rock”) Raines
- Jack Morris
- Lee Smith
- Alan Trammell
- Harold Baines

The Joe Morgan thinks he should be in division:
- Dave Concepcion

The a few great seasons short division:
- David Justice
- Tommy John
- Shawon Dunston
- Chuck Knoblauch
- Chuck Finley
- Travis Fryman

The cheater division:
- Mark McGwire

The spare votes for fallen comrade division:
- Rod Beck

The he had one great season division:
- Brady Anderson
- Robb Nen
- Jose Rijo

You’ll get the same old yelling matches as always (Awww Rice has gotta be in! Wicked smaht! … You kiddin me? C’mon Mad Dog, how you leave out Donny Baseball? … Goose was the greatest reliever ever! Ever! … Andre Dawson was tops in the game for like two seasons! … Maybe we should let McGwire in. …), but I bet no one will mention my Ace in the Hole, Mr. Dale Murphy. Yup, the Murph. He’s the only Phillie on the ballot, and of all these guys, deserves the nod.

Murphy is a two-time NL MVP, finishing in the top-10 four consecutive seasons. He owned the NL with Mike Schmidt in the early-80s. He’s a 7-time All Star. His Gray Ink has him at 147, three above the HOF barrier, while his HOF Monitor is at a well done 115.5. He was also extremely durable, missing only chunks of two seasons because of injury. And during a time when pitching was king, Murphy was one of the top-5 offensive forces in the game for at least five years.

I’m not saying Rice and Goose shouldn’t get nods. They should. Rice is slightly better than Murph, and Goose was the original fireman, and it did it quite well for a slew of seasons. But Dale Murphy deserves a huge share of votes, because he could literally steal some thunder from the juiced-ball boys in the next few years. How does a 2-time MVP with great offensive numbers for the 80s stack up with a lifetime DH who never won the MVP? Hmmm, Edgar?

Of course, we won’t reap the benefits. Murphy will go in as a Brave. Boo.

That’s okay — at our pace, today’s Phils have four possible Hall of Famers in the works. I’ll look at that more closely next time.

Phillies bring back McCarthy for TV

The Phils are bringing back Tom McCarthy. The former Phillies broadcaster spent two years as a play-by-play man for the Mets. He’ll be taking the middle innings on TV, while Harry Kalas mans innings 1-3 and 7-9, like he did two years ago. Chris Wheeler will return to color commentating, as will Larry Andersen, who was doing radio play-by-play last year. Scott Franzke will do those duties, along with Kalas in the fourth (and likely McCarthy in some fashion). Gary Matthews will continue doing color commentary as well. And Jim Jackson will continue with pre-game and post-game show duties.

There are now seven men covering the Phillies through voice. That’s about two too many.

Of course, there’s been much talk about Harry Kalas retiring at some point soon. Who knows the truth to that. But let’s say that’s true, and it seems McCarthy and Franzke would be trying out for the replacement gig as No. 1.

Of the remaining four, the most easily replaceable are Matthews and Jackson, but the most preferable in fans’ eyes are Matthews and Wheeler. But without Matthews and Wheeler, there’s no true color guy remaining, sans Andersen. I say a five man team of Kalas/McCarthy/Franzke/Wheeler/Andersen works best. Here’s your alignment:

TV 1-3, 7-9: Kalas & Andersen
TV 4-6: McCarthy & Wheeler
Radio 1-3: Franzke & Wheeler
Radio 4: Kalas & Andersen
Radio 5-6: Franzke & Andersen
Radio 7-9: McCarthy & Wheeler

McCarthy gets the pre-game and Franzke gets the post-game. No need for anything more.

Cordero off market; bloggers vs. Conlin

A few developments in the past two days, with the post-Thanksgiving lull hitting us hard:

- Nothing new for the Phillies. Wolf and Kuroda are still on the table, supposedly. Jayson Stark put the official stamp on the Mike Lowell drama, saying the Phils “would’ve” offered him the 4Y/$50M deal if he wasn’t satisfied with the Red Sox’ offer. Lowell was satisfied, and alerted the Phils there was no need to offer. Good on Lowell.

- Francisco Cordero is off the market — the Reds nabbed him with a 4Y/$46M deal, with an option for a fifth year. Too much? Probably. But this is a good move for the Reds, upon second glance. They’re a young team with a very formidable pitching staff in the works (Harang, Arroyo, Bailey, Cueto), and their offense is strong. Their bullpen needs work, and Cordero is an instant band aid. They almost needed to overpay for him; they may contend in 2008, in that division.

For the Phils, it means little. The Lidge acquisition ended any speculation of the Phils going after a closer, though the shallow thought of a Lidge/Cordero bullpen whet my whistle. For the market, it means a guy like Jeremy Affeldt might take 3Y/$15M. I wouldn’t mind that.

- Finally, the intriguing news in the blogosphere is the battle between Bill Conlin and Crashburn Alley. When I first read Conlin’s piece about Rollins’ MVP win, I noticed the potshots at “cybergeeks” — slamming OPS+ and VORP and Range Factor and such — and knew this would cause some sort of firestorm. Fire Joe Morgan went after him, obviously, dissecting his article like a biologist to a raccoon carcass. Crashburn took it one more, writing Conlin about the baseless nature of Conlin’s argument. Colin responded, and it can be read here.

If Conlin hasn’t come across as arrogant before, he comes across as it in spades here. Like Marcus Hayes before him, he shows no respect whatsoever for new wave baseball statistics and formula. One question is: Should he? Is it his job to respect stats and formula? Actually, no, it’s not his job. What we must remember is Conlin is paid to be a columnist. He doesn’t report fact, he gives opinion on the fact. The fact in question is Rollins winning the MVP. So Conlin gave his opinion; that his opinion includes a diatribe against new wave statistics is part of his character, his old, grizzled, traditional approach.

Conlin is as old-school as they get. He has a knack for heady and studious language; his columns play out like dizzying landscapes as he finds the offbeat and exceptional in the everyday sports world. He’s also genuinely Philadelphian — his pieces take a fan’s approach and, for the most part, he enjoys rallying the masses. Most of all, he’s been entrenched in the Philadelphia Daily News long enough to understand and revel in its ethos — appeal to Joe Philadelphian, the blue collar union worker on 11th and Passyunk with the soft pretzel and Wawa coffee. He doesn’t bother with stats because, hell, Joe Philadelphian doesn’t. Joe wants to feel good about his city, his athletes. When we win, he wants to revel. Conlin does that well. He don’t need no stinkin’ stats.

And sure, that’s part of the downfall of newspapers. Instead of being the be-all and end-all information source, they’re becoming niche publications, satisfying target audiences through aggregation sessions. The DN is that and so much more — it’s blue collar, a freakin’ tabloid — it doesn’t need our respect. So its columnist doesn’t respect us.

Basically, bloggers, calm down — you should expect this kind of brush off from “When I’m King of the World.”

Still, Conlin’s complete lack of care for a reader comment is just wrong. As an editor, I always try to at least leave a quick, polite e-mail explaining my method when I’m criticized. Conlin doesn’t even care to look at Crashburn Alley, instead labeling Bill (blogger at CA) as a Mets fan angry at the voting. Then he goes on about Hitler and a necessity to wipe out bloggers. Bill at CA wasn’t trying to provoke Conlin, so why did Conlin respond the way he did? Easy — he sees us as the threat; old-school newspapermen see the internet (and anything that goes with it) as threat. I know — I’m in the business. Is he allowed to do that? Sure. It’s his life.

- One other point from the Rollins MVP talk: Most Americans, including the boys at FJM, are vehemently against Rollins even touching the forcefield of the MVP award. Please. It’s a sportswriters award; they look at more than sabermetrics. And you should. If it’s the Most Outstanding Statistical Player award, by all means, let Hanley and Holliday battle it out. But Most Valuable Player — like I’ve been saying forever — is very open ended. Rollins was incredibly valuable, and value isn’t just a statistic. It’s in intangibles, image, etc. And that’s why I can see Rollins as MVP. He was the total package — not just statistically.

Bloggers — and I say this with love — let’s not turn into a boy’s club, like the pen/paper scribes we face off with at the front lines. Let’s be above that.

Phillies rumors: Wolf, Kuroda; Sox pluck Linebrink

Wanted to touch on the rumors that the Phillies have made offers to Hiroki Kuroda and Randy Wolf. Todd Zolecki of the Inky reports it, and says these may not even come to fruition for some time, as they’re opening offers and — as it stands — there should be multiple teams looking at both pitchers.

I’d rather want Kuroda — proven in Japan, unseen in America, a right-hander, younger, not injury prone. Wolf, meanwhile, is well known, as he was drafted by, came up through and played all but one year with the Phils. He’s a Phillie for life, and to bring him back is intriguing. Here are his last three years, all bugged by injury:

2005: 6-4 / 4.39 ERA / 61 K / 26 BB / 1.413 WHIP
2006: 4-0 / 5.56 ERA / 44 K / 33 BB / 1.694 WHIP
2007: 9-6 / 4.73 ERA / 94 K / 39 BB / 1.451 WHIP

He hasn’t really been effective in a large sense since 2003, his All Star season as Phillies ace. He’s been injured ever since, having Tommy John surgery in ‘06. He came back strong to start the ‘07 campaign, making some of us Phillies fans upset we ever dropped him; however, the injuries returned, and his season ended after 18 starts for the Dodgers.

Is he worth the flier? Not over Kuroda. I don’t even know if he’s a better flier than Colon. Wolf will be 31, so if he’s healthy, he is in the prime of his pitching career. And he knows the Vault well. Here are his Vault numbers:

CBP: 149 IP / 8-7 / 4.47 ERA / 106 K / 51 BB / 22HR (25 starts)

Decidedly average. One homer per game isn’t horrible, but isn’t exactly acceptable.

Kuroda still remains the No. 1 choice, and if the Phils can grab him for about $8M per, it’s definitely the move to make. The Phils seem not so shy to spend if the effect is strong. We saw that with the Lowell push (which is practically official now). So Randy Wolf — and I love the guy, don’t get me wrong — wouldn’t be my pick. If the Phils strike out on Kuroda and grab Wolf, he’s your fourth starter at best (I could see a Hamels/Moyer/Myers/Wolf/Kendrick rotation, because the transition from Moyer to Myers is sick.)

So on this Turkey day, let’s not immediately want to wish old friends hello again.

Notes: The Angels swiped Torii Hunter from the pile-o-plenty, seriously coming from nowhere to ink him an estimated 5Y/$90M deal. Thanks for setting the market, Halos. Aaron Rowand looks to be about 5Y/$82M (estimate). Not worth it for the Phils to re-sign.
- Rumors have the Phils offering a slew of prospects for Ryan Zimmerman, while other rumors have the boys tied in with Erik Bedard. I wouldn’t take much stock into these two, and if the Phils were to give up most of their top prospects for either, I’d be wary. I love Zim and Bedard, but don’t deplete the farm system; be smart.
- More rumors: The Phils are lumped in with Melvin Mora, as supposedly he’d wave his no-trade clause for us. I wouldn’t wave our no-trade clause for him.
- The big news the Phils should be most focused on is the White Sox snapping up Scott Linebrink to a 4Y/$19M deal. If Romero gets three years, Linebrink deserves four (and if Romero gets $4M per, Linebrink deserves $5M), so this isn’t a bad deal for the Sox. The Phils could’ve done this deal, but there are no early indications they were interested.
- The Linebrink deal leaves the relief pitching pool somewhat muddled, though Jeremy Affeldt, David Riske and Francisco Cordero are still out there in Tiers B and C. With all the rumors about starting pitching and third base, I think the Phils may be done with the bullpen, which is the wrong move (then again, you can’t confirm anything about this front office’s moves). Still, it’s essential they get one more arm for that pen. I won’t sleep unless they do.

But I will sleep after that tryptophan kicks in. But first, off to Central/Northeast — The Game! Happy Thanksgiving!

Phillies pick up Chris Snelling

It didn’t take long for the Jimmy Rollins MVP celebration to lose luster.

The Phillies traded cash considerations for Chris Snelling. Snelling, a left-handed-hitting outfielder, will be 26 when the season opens. He spent time in Seattle (of course), before going to Washington, Oakland and Tampa Bay, all in 2007. Sounds like a typical Pat Gillick acquisition, if you ask me.

In four seasons, he’s had as much offensive production as Greg Dobbs’ 2007; in fact, he’s had less.

Career: 89 G / 221 AB / 30 R / 6 HR / 19 RBI / 2 SB / .240 / .357 / .380

He’s only had really one strong higher-end Minor League season, hitting well in AAA Tacoma in 2005. Since, he’s had no success at all in AAA stints.

Defensively, he seems to have better numbers, throwing out six in 79 games while committing only one error.

This would be classified under your “Good depth for AAA Lehigh Valley” file. Now, if he’s the “answer” in the outfield if Rowand leaves, well, I allow you to yell. Loudly. By the way, Snelling is on the 40-man roster. Take that as you’d like.

Other moves: The Phils also added Brad Harman and Jason Jaramillo to the 40-man roster, which gives them the upper hand on being called up during the season. Harman’s been in Clearwater, but had a fantastic late season. The infielder (second base, third base) doesn’t figure to be getting called up this year, so it’s a curious move. On the other hand, Jaramillo is the Phillies’ second-most-touted catching prospect, and with his status of either heading to Reading or Lehigh Valley, could be brought into Philly as Carlos Ruiz’s backup sometime this year. Jaramillo impressed during a stint with the US National Team in the World Cup.

What’s next: No word yet on any new signings, though rumors have the Phils interested in cheap pitching (Randy Wolf, Bartolo Colon (!)) and foreign pitching (Kuroda). After the Lowell fallout, however, anything is game.

Jimmy Rollins wins NL MVP

Jimmy Rollins: MVP.

A look at the moments that made 2007 the Year of J-Roll.

Jan. 22: Rollins to Mets: Beat us.

The year began with a boom in the National League East, as Rollins admitted the Phillies were superior (on paper) than their New York rivals. It lit a fire under the Mets, who opened the season with a lead in the East, including a big series win against Rollins (who made a crucial error) and the Phils at Shea Stadium. But, as we know, the fire wasn’t made to last for six months.

April 25: After starting the season 4-11, Rollins helps lead the Phillies to a fifth win in a row, a 9-3 win over Washington. Rollins knocks his eighth homer of the season, keeping the National League lead. He upped his slugging percentage to .659.

June 5-7: The month of May was not particularly good for J-Roll, but he came back strong in June, going 7-14 with a home run, 4 RBIs and 2 SBs in a crucial 3-game sweep of the Mets at Shea.

July 13-14: Maybe feeling snubbed after the All Star Game, which he wasn’t picked to attend, Rollins goes a combined 6-10 with homers in back-to-back games agasint the Cardinals, preventing the team’s 10,000th loss for a short while. Rollins got pushed aside by Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and the Brewers’ JJ Hardy.

August 27-30: Rollins puts together four consecutive multi-hit games, knocking two homers and getting on base half the time against the Mets in a gigantic four-game sweep at the Vault. It pulls the Phils close to the Mets and sets up a September to remember.

September 15: Rollins strikes a pitch to centerfield in the eighth inning of a tie game against the Mets at Shea. Carlos Beltran, usually a rock in center, misplays the fly and has to backtrack. His glove doesn’t reach the ball, sailing over his head and to the wall. Rollins barrels into third base with his 18th triple of the season, scoring Wes Helms and Pete LaForest and giving the Phils the lead. The Phils would win, sweeping the Mets and preparing the team for a final two-week surge for the NL East title.

September 30: The final game of the regular season. The Phillies and Mets are tied for first place in the NL East, and already in Queens, the Mets are down 7-1 to the Marlins. Jimmy Rollins leads off the Phillies offense with a single. Then he steals second. Then he steals third. Chase Utley flies a shallow pop to right field, and Rollins, probably biting his nails at the chance, takes off once the ball hits the mit. He charges the line and comes home standing up. 1-0 Phils.

Later, Rollins gets on base via a walk. Standing at second, he waits as Ryan Howard unloads on a pitch and drives it just over the head of Rafael Belliard and into shallow right field. Yet again, Rollins is off. The throw comes in, but Rollins is way ahead of it, and begins his slide from about halfway down the third base line. he slides right across the plate, like a glass plate on a sheet of ice, gliding to the end of the circle, where he stands and gets a big hand from Aaron Rowand.

Then, with the Phils needing an insurance run, two are on base. Rollins comes to the plate, the crowd going nuts, anticipating something — it’s going to be big, they just know it. He finds his pitch and rips the ball on a line down the first base line. One run scores. Two runs score. The cameras show Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand cheering the runs on, then Rowand points excitedly to second base — Jimmy hasn’t stopped. The throw comes in, Rollins is on his horse, Burrell is jumping in the dugout … slide … safe.

Wheeler and Matthews go crazy. The fans go crazy. Rollins raises his arms in the air and claps. Triple No. 20. The 20-20-20-20 season is complete. Rollins’ MVP victory is solidified. Rollins’ preseason words are vindicated. It’s the best moment of the season … of his career — until one hour later.

Did you know Rollins missed only 12 innings of baseball in 2007? Twelve! ! That’s a gamer.

Congratulations, Jimmy Rollins, 2007 Most Valuable Player of the National League.

Sox re-sign Lowell; Phils almost won

Mike Lowell signed with the Red Sox. It’s a 3-year/$37.5M deal.

Reports are the Phillies had a conference call with Lowell last night, and offered 4 years/$50M. In fact, there was an hour, according to ESPN’s Buster Olney, when the deal seemed done.

Same price, one more year, no go. Does it mean Lowell didn’t want to play in Philly, or that Lowell really wanted to go back to Boston? I’d say the latter — Lowell wanted to go back, and merely was hoping Boston would match the Phils’ money. Three or four years, Lowell gets to play long-term the place he liked most.

For the Phils, what’s next?

Yes, the offer shows the Phils were willing to spend big money on what was perceived to be a low priority. Also, it shows — as Rotoworld put it — the Phils “have been lying to pretty much everyone.” Which is great, if true — the Phils may very well be dedicated to winning, despite the critics and us bloggers who only get the rumor mill. Let them work the lines. It doesn’t mean, however, that they’re going to fill third base with something other than Helms/Dobbs/Bruntlett. The price has to be right.

Free agent third basemen:
- Corey Koskie
- Mike Lamb
- Pedro Feliz
- Tadahito Iguchi?
- Marcus Giles?

Possible trade bait:
- Joe Crede
- Hank Blalock
- Miguel Tejada

Are any of these options any better than the perceived Helms/Dobbs/Bruntlett platoon? Maybe, but for the money, probably not. Maybe Tejada — if the Phils can swing a deal that doesn’t involve Carlos Carrasco/Joe Savery/Josh Outman/Shane Victorino — but is that likely? I’ll take Koskie on a 1Y/$2M flier; honestly, that’s about it. It may be better to hold onto third base, and try to upgrade right field. Now.

NL MVP: Holliday or Rollins?

While the hot stove continues to burn, other questions linger for the Phillies. One of the more important — though superficial — questions is: Will Jimmy Rollins win the 2007 National League MVP Award?

When the Baseball Writers Association of America announces the winner Monday, public perception is one of two men will be given the honor — Rollins or the Colorado Rockies’ Matt Holiday. Other possibilites include Prince Fielder, David Wright and Chipper Jones. You can also lump in Hanley Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Jake Peavy, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.

For one, it’s a heavy field. This year, it seems more impressive seasons came out of the National League. After Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez, the AL’s big season output comes from Carlos Pena, David Ortiz and Vladimir Guerrero (who had relatively down years). The NL field features a ton of big seasons, and I haven’t even mentioned the career seasons by Aaron Rowand, Eric Byrnes, Ryan Braun, Brad Hawpe and Russell Martin.

But chances are the fight will be over Holliday and Rollins. Both had spectacular seasons, career years for them and two of the better seasons in recent memory. They also had complete offensive seasons. Here are the raw offensive numbers:

Rollins: 162 G / .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB
Holliday: 161 G / .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB

Holliday won the NL batting title and finished fifth in the league in home runs. Rollins, meanwhile, led the league in runs and recorded baseball’s fourth ever 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, home runs, stolen bases), joining Willie Mays, Frank Wildfire Schulte and Curtis Granderson, who also accomplished the feat last season.

But offensive numbers can be misleading, especially when one factors in the home field. Both Holliday and Rollins play in hitters parks, but looking at this, it shows Holliday clearly performed better in Coors Field:

Rollins (Citizens Bank Park): .286 / 18 HR / 47 RBI / .336 OBP / .556 SLG
Holliday (Coors Field): .376 / 25 HR / 82 RBI / .435 OBP / .722 SLG

Advantage Holliday. But if you look at his road numbers, they’re practically the same as Rollins’. Of course, you can’t choose where you play your home games, so you can’t judge Holliday too strongly for this. Still, in neutral ground, Rollins had a better offensive season.

You can’t deny, however, that Holliday was the main offensive force during his team’s run to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. According to my Subjective Stats Ratings, Holliday was clearly above his Rockies peers offensively:

1. Holliday: .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB / 4.653 SSR
2. Troy Tulowitzki: .291 / 24 HR / 99 RBI / 104 R / 7 SB / 3.883 SSR
3. Brad Hawpe: .291 / 29 HR / 116 RBI / 80 R / 0 SB / 3.866 SSR
4. Garrett Atkins: .301 / 25 HR / 111 RBI / 83 R / 3 SB / 3.840 SSR
5. Todd Helton: .320 / 17 HR / 91 RBI / 86 R / 0 SB / 3.640 SSR

Meanwhile, Rollins led the Phillies in SSR, but his rating is far closer to his peers:

1. Rollins: .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB / 4.537 SSR
2. Ryan Howard: .268 / 47 HR / 136 RBI / 94 R / 1 SB / 4.306 SSR
3. Chase Utley: .332 / 22 HR / 103 RBI / 104 R / 9 SB / 4.065 SSR
4. Aaron Rowand: .309 / 27 HR / 89 RBI / 105 R / 6 SB / 3.967 SSR
5. Pat Burrell: .256 / 30 HR / 97 RBI / 77 R / 0 SB / 3.635 SSR

And, yes, Holliday has a higher SSR than Rollins. Here is the 2007 National League top-five in SSR:

1. Holliday: .340 / 36 HR / 137 RBI / 120 R / 11 SB / 4.653 SSR
2. Rollins: .296 / 30 HR / 94 RBI / 139 R / 41 SB / 4.537 SSR
3. David Wright: .325 / 30 HR / 107 RBI / 113 RBI / 34 SB / 4.482 SSR
4. Prince Fielder: .288 / 50 HR / 119 RBI / 109 R / 2 SB / 4.431 SSR
5. Hanley Ramirez: .332 / 29 HR / 81 RBI / 125 R / 51 SB / 4.405 SSR

Just for a barometer, here are the top three in the American League:

1. Alex Rodriguez: .314 / 54 HR / 156 RBI / 143 R / 24 SB / 5.339 SSR
2. Magglio Ordonez: .363 / 28 HR / 139 RBI / 117 R / 4 SB / 4.540 SSR
3. David Ortiz: .332 / 35 HR / 117 RBI / 116 R / 3 SB / 4.479 SSR

So, while Holliday has a higher SSR than Rollins, it isn’t much a difference, as Rodriguez’ difference over Ordonez is astronomical. (Of course, A-Rod had one of baseball’s greatest single seasons, but it shows Holliday didn’t have an outright unanimous MVP campaign.)

We’ll say Holliday wins the offensive battle, but by a skinny margin, especially if you want to factor in home fields. Thus, the battle comes down to intangibles.

Defense: Rollins won a Gold Glove for his performance, maybe his best defensive season yet. He made few errors (they were either complete mind blunders or incredibly hard plays), made more outstanding plays and provided huge solace to a left infield that included Wes Helms and the almost-as-bad Greg Dobbs for most of the season.

Holliday, meanwhile, made bad gaffes in the field, including a potentially-damning play in the Wild Card playoff. That game counted, remember.

Leadership: Unquestionably, the Colorado Rockies were led by Todd Helton. He was the heart and soul. Holliday was the unspoken leader of the offense, much like Utley. So who was the Phillies leader? Rollins, again unquestionably. It was he who delivered the opening salvo for the 2007 season — “We are the team to beat, on paper, in the NL East this year” — it was he who delivered offensively when the team struggled in April (he led the league in home runs until May), and it was he who played so consistently strong that his steady play was overshadowed by second half pushes by Burrell, Howard, and key bench players.

Really, Rollins was a stalwart, and kept the offense afloat when nothing was going right. Holliday merely spoke with his bat, and it wasn’t until the Rockies’ pitching righted the ship that the Rox finally began to win heavily.

Supporting cast: Like I said, Holliday was far and away above his teammates offensively. But take this into account: The Rockies supporting cast was much more consistently reliable over the season than the Phillies. Tulowitzki, Hawpe, Atkins, Helton, Kaz Matsui and Willy Taveras all posted seasons over 3.00 in SSR, meaning they had standard everyday-player seasons.

While the Phillies offense is higher-profile, the drop off is tremendous. Howard, Utley, Rowand, Burrell and Shane Victorino posted seasons over 3.00 in SSR. And after Victorino (at 3.439), next is Jayson Werth (2.951).

So the Rockies had seven everday-player seasons, while the Phillies had six. Yes, not a huge margin, but telling. Also, the Phils suffered a plethora of injuries, and the pitching … there need not be a comparison. Offense was much more essential to the Phillies than the Rockies, and the Phillies needed better seasons from their best players to match. Rollins beats Holliday here.

Team performance: It’s really a wash, with both the Rockies and Phillies posting identical records and, really, with identical situations. Both teams needed to post huge Septembers to enter the playoffs, which they did. They both partly relied on the teams ahead of them freefalling. And, both teams had strong offenses (Phillies better) and relatively poor pitching (Rockies better).

Impact: Part of the Most Valuable Player conversation must include impact — impact on the team, the league, the game. It’s arguable Hanley Ramirez had a better offensive season than anyone in the NL, but what’s his impact all the way down in floundering (pun) Florida? Call it the Tim Raines corollary — should someone with more of an image win the award? This isn’t necessarily a factor, but it can be taken into brief account.

Rollins plays in Philadelphia. He’s known by many baseball fans and fairweather watchers. He speaks out. He makes headlines. Not as much as an A-Rod or even a David Wright (then again, that’s debatable), but he makes himself known. And in the Philly market, on a team that has forever been on the cusp of great success, that counts.

Holliday, meanwhile, plays out in Denver, where baseball traditionally takes the back seat to football and hockey (yes, this can be said for Philly, but over a long period of time, it’s been said to be a huge baseball city too). Holliday is one of the “who are they” guys who crept onto the mainstream scene this season. Not as many people recognize him, and like teammate Helton, many wouldn’t even know where he played or what he’s done. Yes, this is very superficial, but tell me writers don’t look at this.

Verdict: Holliday had the superior offensive season in 2007, but Rollins’ “value” is worth more. He led his team with his mouth and his talent. He played every inning of every game. He never slowed. And his team defeated injury and criticism to win its first division title in 14 years. If either wins the award, there wouldn’t be much debate. They’re both worthy of the title. But who was more valuable? Rollins.

And will he win? I think so.

Phillies prospect options very good, very bad

Baseball America published its list of the Phillies top-10 prospects for their 2008 publication. Here’s the list:

 

1. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
2. Adrian Cardenas (2B)
3. Joshua Outman (LHP)
4. Joe Savery (LHP)
5. Kyle Drabek (RHP)
6. Dominic Brown (OF)
7. Greg Golson (OF)
8. Lou Marson (C)
9. Drew Carpenter (RHP)
10. Jason Jaramillo (C)

 

What’s it mean? Well, it’s a good starting point to find out what Minor League Phillies have a shot at the big show. But it doesn’t tell the whole story.

 

The readers at Phuture Phillies, the most trusted blog that covers the Phils farm system, recently ranked the Phils top-30. Here’s their top-10:

 

1. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
2. Adrian Cardenas (2B)
3. Joe Savery (LHP)
4. Joshua Outman (LHP)
5. Drew Carpenter (RHP)
6. Lou Marson (C)
7. Jason Donald (SS)
8. Kyle Drabek (RHP)
9. JA Happ (LHP)
10. Brad Harman (SS/2B)

 

You start to get an idea through these lists and other lists out there that in the Phillies farm system, there are a select few who seem to be can’t-miss prospects (Carrasco, Cardenas, Savery, Outman), then the rest: a few guys we’re pinning our hopes on (Brown, Carpenter, Drabek, Donald, Harman, Marson) and a few guys getting close to “Majors or Bust” level (Happ, Golson, Jaramillo). And the entire system is filled with either the former or the latter.

 

To put it bluntly, a lot of the high-A guys are exciting and have potential here and there; most of Ottawa’s 2007 roster is never-was material.

 

In 2008, a good chunk of the AAA (now Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs) roster features players who must make a big impression, so we’ll focus on these guys, as they’re the ones who might get to see Philadelphia this coming year. Let’s first run down the big four prospects, then the guys looking for a jump to Philadelphia in 2008.

Carlos Carrasco is the clear class of the Phils farm system. The 20-year-old Venezuelan started 2006 in the Sally League (Lakewood) and dominated, going 12-6 with a 2.26 ERA. He started 2007 in the Florida State League (Clearwater) and dominated, going 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA. He struggled a bit after a promotion to the Eastern League (Reading), but given his patterns, it’s not hard to think he’ll blow away the International League (Lehigh Valley). He has a tight fastball/changeup combination; from the right side, he’s the perfect foil to the other fastball/changeup hurler we got in Philly.

 

2008: Carrasco will spend considerable time in Allentown; I wouldn’t even mind him staying there all season, working against more patient and experienced hitters before coming to Philadelphia. He may get a shot Sept. 1, but that’s the earliest I’d like to see him pitching at the Vault.

 

2009: Hopefully, he’s starting the fourth game of the season for your Phillies.

 

Adrian Cardenas is a fine infielder — a sharp hitter with the ability to become a steady singles/doubles hitter. Even has a bout of power in his bat, hitting 9 homers in Lakewood. The problem? Not a sharp defensive player. He doesn’t have the range to play third base, so is really limited to shortstop, and more, to second base. The problem, of course, is what’s blocking him to the Major Leagues. The 20-year-older should start 2008 in Clearwater, but it’ll be interesting to see if he — or someone else — is dealt before the move to the Majors.

 

2008: Like I just said, he’ll start the year in Clearwater, and if he performs well enough, he might move to Reading before he turns 21.

 

2009: I can’t see him being in the Majors until September 2009, and by then, the landscape could look much different. I say, if the Phils can swing him for a big trade at this year’s deadline, it may be a juicy option.

 

Joe Savery was the Phils’ first pick in the 2007 First Year Player Draft. He was a gamble, coming off labrum surgery during his time at Rice University. But he’s been no wart, going 2-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 7.52 K/9. The lefty brings a solid fastball and strong changeup to the table (sense a trend?), but also displays a working curve. He’s also a two-way talent, the best hitter at Rice during his tenure. Still, he’s a hurler, through and through. And if healthy, a damn good one.

 

2008: Savery will either start in Clearwater or Reading, and his great showing in the Arizona Fall League may indicate he’ll be shacking up at the latter location.

 

2009: Like another talented Phillie lefty, he could see a call up by May or June. After a breaking-in season, he could be called upon to be the club’s No. 3.

Joshua Outman snuck up on most Phillie phanatics, garnering much attention because of his inspired play at Clearwater (10-4, 2.45 ERA, 8.97 K/9). It’s been an adjustment period at Reading, and depending on his Spring Training performance, he’ll either spend a little more time there or head south to Allentown. He’s a slender lefty with a low-90s fastball, a curve, a slider and, yup, a changeup. It’s our wheelhouse.

 

2008: Outman will either start the year in Reading or Allentown, but by the end of the year, he’ll likely be in Allentown. He’ll be on the short list for a September call-up to Philadelphia.

 

2009: It’s possible Outman will start the year in Philly; it’s possible Outman will be taking a few more starts in Allentown; it’s possible he won’t be in the organization.

 

After the big four, it’s a crap shoot. Carpenter has potential, but his success is one big year in Clearwater. And after him, it gets muddled enough.

 

Greg Golson is a huge question mark — some say he has huge potential, others say he’s a career Minor Leaguer. In 2007, between Clearwater and Reading, he hit 15 home runs, drove in 68 and slugged about .410. Not bad. But he was a first round pick, and really hasn’t played quite like one. He has raw speed and hitting prowess, but hasn’t quite put it together, especially with empty plate discipline (173 strikeouts in 571 at bats this year). That’s bad.

 

2008: Because he’s a right fielder by trade, it’s quite possible he gets a shot in Philadelphia sooner than later. Is he the right fielder of the future? Cut down the strikeouts and put a game together, and hell yeah. What are those chances? I’ll give him 7-to-1 odds on being the right fielder of the future. But if one of the outfielders goes down early in the season (which could easily happen), Golson could drink his coffee.

 

JA Happ took his coffee in 2007, and took it with a lot of cream. That’s a metaphor for a mediocre start (4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 5 K). The 6’5” lefty was outstanding until he hit AAA, then he hit the wall (though his K rates were still high). The Phils brought him up for a spot start and he pretty much bombed, sending him back to Ottawa where he finished, before coming down with injuries that maybe reasoned his poor 2007.

 

2008: He is a question mark for sure, but there’s hope a healthy Happ will perform at high levels. (Dig the alliteration!) Spring Training will prove whether he’ll be starting in AAA or the MLB, but one figures he’ll make a few AAA starts before venturing east. If he performs well, he’ll be a Phillie by June. Will he start? Depends on how the rotation looks then; if it’s still a healthy five-man, Happ may be called upon to make spot starts or even pitch out of the ‘pen.

 

Jason Jaramillo is one of the bazillion “catchers of the future” the Phils tout in their system each year. The 25-year-old catcher spent 2007 in AAA Ottawa and put up solid, if unspectacular numbers. He’s either nothing to write home about or the next Johnny Estrada. I think he might be something in the middle — a poor-man’s Yorvit Torrealba (Jaramillo has good defense and arm). That’s not a big complement.

 

2008: Carlos Ruiz had a fine rookie 2007, and if he continues on a strong pace, no Jaramillos will be discussed as “catcher of the future.” The Phils could swing him now for another Minor Leaguer, or package him with another prospect for a more rewarding player, but to do that is to put all faith in Ruiz, and that can’t be done just yet. Close, but not yet.

 

Other Iron Pigs waiting in the wings:
- Javon Moran: A poor-man’s Greg Golson. So, it’s pretty likely he won’t be the first to be called up in an OF emergency.
- Brennan King: He’s an older guy (27), and doesn’t have Major League talent.
- Joe Bisenius: Saw time in Philly last year, and could be a future closer. May see time in Philly late this year.

 

So are any Phuture Phillies (trademark Phuture Phillies) ready to make the jump in 2008? Hard to answer, especially because nobody figured Kyle Kendrick would jump from Reading to a 10-4, 3.87 ERA season in the big leagues.

 

But Happ could very well be that next Kendrick — more accurately, Outman could be the next Kendrick, jumping from possibly AA to MLB. The only position player prospect that has a real chance at making a difference is Golson, and even he’s an outside shot. Pitching is at a premium, and luckily, the Phils have a couple outstanding arms in the system. It’s best the Phils don’t rush them. Keep Carrasco in the minors for another year; don’t even think about moving Savery too far. The Phillies youth movement looks like it’s going to blossom in 2010. Until then, let the chips fall where they may, and go with the veterans before making any crass moves.

 

But, just to get you excited, here’s your potential pitching rotation for the 2010 Philadelphia Phillies:
1. Cole Hamels (LHP)
2. Brett Myers (RHP)
3. Joe Savery (LHP)
4. Carlos Carrasco (RHP)
5. Kyle Kendrick (RHP)

 

Yeah.